Offaly SFC 2009 - Odds available from Ladbrokes

[Thereorthereabouts]

Yes I think you are right again Shark. I can definitely see them being in the relegation battle.
Smith is a massive loss and they dont seem to have a settled / gutsy / motivated team as you would expect from them in recent years. Karl Slattery isnt having one of his better years, and they are carrying a couple of guys this year. I expect them to be in the relegation shake up but not a chance of being relegated.

[bula bula]

Posted this in the other thread but it will make more sense to have it here.

Just of interest seeing as most are tipping Edenderry to beat Tullamore that Paddy Power have them at 15/8 with Tullamore at 1/2 and the draw at 7s. The other odds are:

Erin Rovers evs and gracefield evs with the draw at 13/2
St. Brigids 11/4 and Clara 1/3 with the draw at 15/2
Shannonbridge 6/4 and Ballycumber 8/13 with the draw at 15/2
Ferbane 11/8 and Tubber at 7/10 with the draw at 7s

Clara and Ballycumber looks like a nice double.

[Lone Shark]

I would have said that Gracefield were overpriced at even money against Erin Rovers, but it's striking how many people (including one confirmed Blackthorn ) are opposing them this week. They might be a bigger risk than I thought.

[noodles]

Gracefield seemed to put everything into winning the championship last year and their failure looks like it took alot more out of them than we thought. could be caught out by Rovers at the weekend, 7/1 on a draw between Ferbane and Tubber looks like an interesting bet, however with LS tipping Ferbane, Tubber could have a good chance

[Lone Shark]

.... however with LS tipping Ferbane, Tubber could have a good chance

I may have had a shocking performance in the last round of the tipsters, but at least I called the Ferbane match right ....

[Superted]

LS, do you know the time and venue of the Tubber V Ferbane match??

[Lone Shark]

12:00 on Sunday in Ballycumber. Make sure you don't get held up too late at mass!

[Lone Shark]

Okay, I've got my money on, so I can talk about this now ......

They made a good job of the hurling odds, albeit on matches that ended up not taking place, but I'm amazed at some of these prices. For what it's worth, here's what my lines would be....

Gracefield 1/2 Draw 15/2 Erin Rovers 2/1 - now as I said I wouldn't get stuck into this because I don't know what's going on in the Gracefield camp and the lack of confidence in them is striking, but even so, they'd have to be really poor not to be favourites in this game. Erin Rovers will fight hard but they are a very limited team and there's only so much you can ask Alan Lynam to do. Even at these odds, you're making considerable allowance for Gracefield being poor - at even money, you're expecting them to collapse altogether.

Clara 1/4 Draw 10/1 St. Brigids 7/2 - not too wrong in this one. I think Clara will win by four or five, but you couldn't really argue with the pricing here.

1/1 Edenderry 11/2 Draw 5/4 Tullamore - You'd have to keep the draw very short here since it will be a very low scoring game, but even so, there's no way you could have Tullamore as favourites - where are the scores going to come from? Other than Ronan Monaghan, they didn't have a single forward who could score and without O'Grady or Dooley coming back in, they might struggle to score again. Having said that, Edenderry ain't free scorers either so hence the draw being a good bet. At 15/8 though, you'd have to back Edenderry.

Ballycumber 1/3 Draw 9/1 Shannonbridge 3/1 - If Jason Kelly is gone, then suddenly Shannonbridge have a distinctly average look about them. Ballycumber didn't do well against Rhode but they weren't the first team to struggle against Rhode and they won't be the last - still too good for this game and should win easily if they perform at 70% or better.

As for the Ferbane game, well I won't go putting a price on it, but I'd say we'll be fairly competitive. Certainly I'd be happy enough to have a few bob at 11/8.

[Lone Shark]

Revised odds up on site now.

Rhode 5/6
Shamrocks 4/1
Clara 9/2
Ferbane 8/1
Tullamore 10/1
Gracefield 20/1
Ballycumber 25/1
Erin Rovers 40/1
St Brigids 40/1
Tubber 40/1
Edenderry 100/1

Coming like a train with an run up the outside .....

[Lone Shark]

Keep an eye out for the Racing Post this Saturday actually - the Goalpost supplement (GAA betting bit) is featuring the Offaly SFC, with Brendan Lowry as the expert opinion.

[Lone Shark]

For those of ye who didn't pick up a copy last Saturday....

Clara have forward power to dethrone champs Rhode

All-Star Brendan Lowry, corner forward on the Offaly side that denied Kerry’s five-in-a-row bid in 1982, speaks to Con O’Meara about the Offaly SFC

THE Offaly SFC is played on a group basis. Three groups of four play out, with the top two in each progressing. From the three group leaders, a draw selects two that go straight to the semi-finals, while the other group leader join the second placed sides in the quarter-finals. With the second round of group games played in the last week, we decided to cast an eye over the potential winners.

Though his focus may be more on golf courses than football pitches as he follows the fortunes of his son, Shane, Brendan is still tuned into matters GAA. Rhode, Leinster club finalists in 2008, have already laid down a marker in this year’s championship with a 3-14 to 0-8 hammering of Ballycumber, a side many saw as a potential threat to Rhode. Rhode looked to be on the way to a major shock in last year’s provincial final against Kilmacud until a soft goal scuppered their hopes. They boast a number of quality players such as Roy Malone, Shane Sullivan and Paschal Kelleghan to support the best footballer in Offaly: Niall McNamee. The loss of Niall Darby through injury places more pressure on McNamee, but he’s capable of delivering. Brendan believes that the title is Rhode’s to lose. To help Niall McNamee they’ve young players like Anton Sullivan coming through from the minor ranks.
“They’ve got the players and the track record, but at 5-6 it’s worth looking to try and find a side to take them on with. Their draw on Wednesday night with Shamrocks shows they’re not invincible,” said Brendan.

Lowry continues: “It’s worth looking at sides on the periphery. Even the likes of Ballycumber at 25-1, though they took a hammering from Rhode in the opener, could have a say. They recovered to account for Shannonbridge by six points last weekend. “They’ve a good side with players like Rory Guinan, Nigel Grennan and Ciaran Grennan, and with a showdown with Shamrocks to come, they can recover to take second spot in Group One.”

Shamrocks are second in the betting at 4-1. With Neville Coughlan, PJ Ward, Barry and Ronan Mooney, county hurler Derek Molloy and goalkeeper, Padraic Kelly, they’ve a strong outfit. They struggled to beat outsiders Shannonbridge by 0-12 to 0-10 in their Group One opener but had a confidence boosting 1-10 apiece draw with Rhode in round two. “They’re the last side to have beaten Rhode in championship back in the 2007 semi-final – they went on to lose that final to Tullamore – but they’ve never won the championship. I wouldn’t fancy them at that price,” explains Brendan.

In Group Two, the club Brendan soldiered with, Ferbane, have enjoyed two wins over Edenderry and Tubber and are in pole position to qualify. They’ve been cut from a pre-season price of 28-1 into 16-1 before the start and now 8-1. Brendan says that James Grennan is inspiring them from midfield but he admits that it’s hard to see them win out.

On Tubber and Tullamore in Group Two, Brendan noted that “Tubber have a huge commitment level and, while it’s hard to see them win it, they could make a
semi-final. Tullamore recovered from first round defeats in the last two years to win the title in 2007, before losing out to Rhode in last year’s decider. “They overcame Edenderry last weekend and could yet be a factor but they are missing a couple of key players due to commitments to other sports. If Shane Dooley (hurling) and Gearoid O’Grady (rugby) come back on board, they could regroup”.

In Group Three, Clara top the group with two wins from two. Clara had a 0-15 to 1-7 first round victory over Erin Rovers in a game where the margin could
have been greater.“Clara have very good forwards in Thomas Deehan (he got 0-7 from play against Erin Rovers), John Reynolds and Matthew Mitchell.
“Ross Brady is playing well in midfield too. They definitely have the talent to trouble Rhode if they can perform to their potential,” says Lowry.
Gracefield are the real disappointment of the championship so far. Having won the league, they fell to St Brigid’s in the opener, before scraping a draw with Erin Rovers on a scoreline of 1-9 to Gracefield’s 3-3. Unless they can turn their form around and beat Clara in the next round, the league champions will be out.

Brendan admits that it’s hard to look beyond the money-on favourites, Rhode, but if he was to have a punt (and he said he probably will!), his money would
be on Clara at 9-2.

Recommendation
Clara
2pts 9-2 Ladbrokes

Ladbrokes – Offaly SFC: 5-6 Rhode, 4 Shamrocks, 9-2 Clara, 8 Ferbane, 10 Tullamore, 20 Gracefield, 25 Ballycumber, 40 Erin Rovers, St Brigids, 50 Tubber, 100 Edenderry.

[Lone Shark]

Revised odds after the draw:

8/13 Rhode
11/4 Clara
6/1 Shamrocks
6/1 Ferbane
20/1 Tubber
25/1 Erin Rovers

[Mighty Pair O' Hands]

Revised odds after the draw:

8/13 Rhode
11/4 Clara
6/1 Shamrocks
6/1 Ferbane
20/1 Tubber
25/1 Erin Rovers

Hardly worth our while showing up !

[Lone Shark]

Revised odds after the draw:

8/13 Rhode
11/4 Clara
6/1 Shamrocks
6/1 Ferbane
20/1 Tubber
25/1 Erin Rovers

Hardly worth our while showing up !

Yet something tells me that ye will. Call it a hunch.

[GOOFY]

Yip, according to those odds Ferbane and Shamrocks are due thumping victories in the quarter finals

Both games could be tighter than expected imo