DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

A forum to air your views on Offaly GAA matters and beyond.
Tmacmahon
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Re: DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

Post by Tmacmahon »

It’s hard to know what the general consensus on Maughan would be. He has built up a good relationship with the media in Offaly through Offaly tv and people probably would recognise his name as a well know gaa person because of his management of 20 / 30 years ago.

I doubt people think he’s doing a horrendous job because he’s not . He isn’t doing anything near a good job and his team selection is rigid and stale and indeed predictable . (Why did the two boys start on the bench for example)Some of that is because of our lack of depth in the squad but on the other hand he could have ensured that was not an issue.


Like I said we will beat Carlow very comfortably but for me that is not enough.

I would like more from an Offaly manager. One who talks up our county instead of always playing down our abilities and trying to promote a second tier in every interview. We see the respect the joe McDonough cup gets so a second tier would be hugely detrimental to a county like us. We need kids having players to look up to and admire.

We need to get to division 2, start beating the tipps, Longfords, Laois , Westmeath on a somewhat regular basis. That is not beyond the boundS of possibility .

Fairplayalways
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Re: DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

Post by Fairplayalways »

of course, Tipp (in particular) and Longford do not deserve to get mentioned as lesser teams in Division 3, they are steady and competitive each year and are unlucky in ways that Armagh, Down and Derry have been in the Division in recent years...Offaly are a stale Div 3 team...going no where fast by look of it..Niall McNamee wont stay too long more..we got an extra year out of him so far (after he retired) and have just continued with the same ould rigmorale ....

Tmacmahon
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Re: DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

Post by Tmacmahon »

Niall is still our best forward so here’s hoping he does stay

white grass
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Re: DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

Post by white grass »

The Long Read
I realise posting here is probably a massive mistake but here goes
I am really not sure if there is a concerted bad faith effort to drive an agenda centred around people secretly happy (and hiding it badly) that Offaly were beaten because it allows them to talk about how if 'our lad' was on to the county team they would be world beaters.
Or a really persistent exercise in wummery with someone sitting at their laptop laughing their heads off

Either way I am really disheartened by a lot of the tone and the lack of respect it shows to both our players and opposition.

It’s possible to argue that new blood is needed, that the old school army man management style is out date, that not enough focus has been put on getting depth in the squad. Id be sympathetic to some of that, but a lot of the time that’s not what happens. A lot (Not all) of what happens here, is a poster has one or at a stretch two players whom they believe have to be got on the team and that will solve everything, other players might be mentioned to strengthen the argument but these are just pawns. The reality is more complicated but that doesn’t suit the narrative. People like a simple problem because that implies there’s a simple solution. The problem is complicated and so is the solution. To find that solution you have to understand the problem.

Firstly and this takes up a lot of the post, on defensive football.
There are really ultra-defensive sides like Carlow out there, but Offaly are not one. In 2008 and PERHAPS 2013-14 Offaly tried something along those lines but it was neither popular or effective. It is fairer to say that Offaly like most teams expect all their players to be defensive without the ball and majority of them to be offensive when they have it. We just struggle get ball to our inside forwards quick enough. I understand Dublin operate in a different universe to Offaly but it would be rare to hear them described as defensive, even though, to make an overly simplistic comparison their style is somewhat similar to what Offaly are Trying to do(This massively simplifies the point and is probably the only time someone will make a link between the teams). I won’t be overly gone on autobiographies but there was an extract in the paper recently where Bernard Brogan discussed how Pat Gilroy forced him to work and track back. Forwards are expected to follow their men on every team in the country, the problem happens when the turnover everyone's being working for occurs and the team in possession lack the speed or power to transition from defence to attack quickly enough.
Ten years ago Dublin had Paul Flynn, Kerry had Paul Galvin and Cork Paddy Kelly to bridge that gap. Newspaper men adore corner forwards but guys like Flynn, Galvin and Kelly were just incredible in the job they did. Today, the bigger teams seem to depend less on those type of talisman type players and use quick inter play and multiple runners. which although it often appears simple, actually it requires a really high skill set, levels of fitness, constant training, massive patience and high tempo games to perfect.
Every team in Ireland at some stage finds itself 60 yards from goal hand passing until a gap appears. Dublin rejigged not only their game but probably everyone else's after 2014 semi-final. Guys like Ciaran Kilkenny are vital for this type of game. But its bloody hard work and there aren’t many Ciaran Kilkennys out there. It often looks bad and if someone makes a simple error, lacks discipline or goes alone the whole thing breaks down and the opposition is given a chance to attack while they have massive space for their forwards.

The game centres on restarts, so the opposition midfield and half back line push up on your kick out and their markers follow them. If a team loses two kick outs in a row it appears they have gone defensive with everyone in their half, when in fact they’re just trying to get the ball out of their own half. Those who complain loudest about defensive football would be the first to describe a half forward as lazy if he stood in his position 60 yards away, while his marker kicked a point or caught an Offaly kick out uncontested.


One of Offalys big problems is a lack of goals. There are three main ways to get goals (and even points from play).

1. Fast ball before the forward line is crowded out: This is getting rarer because the team without the ball just has to delay the attacking team by five or ten seconds in their backline by tracking, tackling or a foul. Kerry and Dublin can still pull this off regularly. Dublin will often use a kick out or a throw in to score these kind of goals. It’s still common enough at club and schools level, Offaly’s win over Longford in 2016 involved elements of this, but the games between the countries since have been tense affairs

2. Team Combination play, where the attackers patiently probe across the 65 and find a gap: Peader Mogans goal for Donegal had a lot of skill with side jinks and a great shot etc but the inter passing which occurred before that had taken the centre back out of the play and put Tyrone on the back foot the defenders got drawen to trying a tackle and a spilt second gap appeared. Once again this requires a high skill set

3. Acts of God: deflections, balls off the post etc: I always worry these are more lightly to cost Offaly than help them.

I am not privy to any inside information but just a few observations on the way the Offaly teams sets up. All the managements for 10 years have used attacking corner and wing backs. Niall Darby, David Dempsey, Eoin Carroll Joey O Connor Declan Hogan all like to drive up the field. Under Maughan Offaly appear to have crowded the middle third with big men in affect deploying three or for four Extra midfielders to pressure the opposition kick out and provide options on their own. This worked really well against Meath and Cork but fared poorly against Laois's use of short kick outs.

Offaly struggle to break down teams who have tracked back and set up their defensive shield. A prime example was the 2017 draw against Westmeath in o Connor Park. Offaly held much of the possession but couldn't find a gap, the crowds went home complaining about defensive football. The replay in the tighter Cussack Park pitch was a more open, Westmeath won well. In a more open game Peter Cunningham found gaps running at Westmeath from centre back, scored four points and the critics claimed this proved he was too far from goal. Carlow under o Connor/Poacher were one of the most defensive teams in Ireland, Offaly outplayed them in 2019 but only scraped over the line. The Offaly- Sligo 2019 league game was a tense dower affair last year. A few months later in the Championship Sligo dropped their tempo, lost their structure and Offaly played pretty open football. I doubt either team changed their tactics much, Offaly lined out with 14 of the players who started in Collooney and introduced the fifteenth. It was the circumstances had changed greatly, when teams aren’t switched on in the modern game they get opened up.

Northern teams (In particular any who have had people like Rory Gallagher involved) are highly structured; this is one of a number of reasons Offaly have a bad record against them with the exclusion of Antrim. Our neighbours in Laois on the other hand seem to love playing Ulster sides. Unfortunately, the number of Ulster teams in Division 3 has increased in recent times. Offaly soaked up pressure from Leitrim in the first half in Carrick then found gaps in the second half and really on top in the second half, they ended up scoring 2-16. They may have made plans for particular Derry players on Sunday but in general most teams playing into the wind in the first half try to wear the opposition down. On Sunday Offaly couldn’t keep close enough against the wind and couldn’t find enough gaps in the Derry defence with it. Labelling teams as defensive is simplistic but it means critics don’t have to address more complicated issues around teams inter play.
As a side bar Everyone hates defensive football but if Jim McGuinness offered to take the Offaly job for a year’s supply of Carroll’s Ham there would be a queue from the Faithful Fields to the Blue Ball for trials and a rush on Offaly Jerseys.

There is a massively dismissive attitude to the teams occupying Division 3

Although its ten years since they faced one another in an Ireland Final I think most people would agree that Cork and Down have had the benefit of a higher level of football for the last decade. Cork topped the league table in 2014 and 2015 going on to lose the Division One Final in 2015. Down topped the Division 2 table in 2015, both sides went into a league spiral after 2016 but given the footballers at their disposal there was a limit to how far that downturn would go. Even during these tough times Down beat Armagh and Monaghan in the 2017 Ulster championship and Cork drew with Mayo that year in the qualifiers

Longford Leinster Minor Champions 2010, provided Leinster Club champions 2018

Derry Ulster Minor Champions 2015 & 2017, Ulster u21 Champions 2018, Division 1 league finalists 2014, provided Ulster Club champions 2014, 2015 and 2017. Seniors drew with Mayo 2017 in the Qualifier

Tipperary All Ireland Minor Champions 2011, Munster u21 Champions 2015 and lost the All Ireland Final by a point, Senior All Ireland Semi Finalists 2016

At the start of the year Offaly were facing into a big hill. Their first four games were hugely important and three of them were away from home. For a number of years Offaly had a chance to save themselves on the last day, their main target games in 2020 were back to back early in the league and their opponents knew this as well. They were without Johnny Maloney, Peter Cunningham and Niall McNamee, all of whom had been key men in the Meath game. Even from two years ago, key defensive leaders like Alan Muhall, Paul McConway and Sean Pender had retired.

Against Cork, Longford, Leitrim and in game five against Down, Paddy Dunican and his defence kept clean sheets. David Dempsey who would be one of the more attacking defenders sacrificed that side of his own game and served as an effective man marker. Eoin Carroll who is more comfortable up the field, came back put his head down and put in solid shift at five, kicking three points when they were really needed against Louth. Eaten bread is soon forgotten, I would advise people to go back and read the RTE or Examiner reports of our early games and how they dug them out. Anton Sullivan really stood up and provided leadership, Ruari McNamee a player who would have started his career as nippy corner forward worked really hard out the field to create openings and took scores, Panda Allen dragged defenders all over the place and put scores on the board, Panda efforts are often underappreciated, he messes up sometimes but so often he’s the guy digging us out of the hole.

It wasn’t always pretty; at times it was ugly. Every player messed up at some stage, sometimes players found it hard to put good performances back to back or even half to half. There were issues around not getting enough from the bench, these have now been replaced with the fact that bench did most of the scoring against Derry. The biannual Offaly Longford games have turned into wars of attrition The failure to push on and beat Longford and the near collapse against Louth which almost mirrored a similar event a year before, point to team that often doubts itself. But they got there in the end. When it mattered and the fat was in the fire they stood up. Their critics stepped back into the shadows and waited.
A few things on the future. Over the next few years experienced players will retire and the torch will be passed firstly from people like the two Nialls who made their senior debuts in 2003 and 2008 and then shortly after that from the Minors teams of 2008/2010 to the 2016 to 2020 u21/20 teams, there’s a lot of talent there and they have been set a good example. Every year the hill that is Division 3 gets a little higher but I really hope that they can get a small bit of luck and the momentum behind them and drive on.

Ballycumber won the Championship in 1968, there was no Ballycumber man on the starting team for the 1969 All Ireland Final. Pat Monaghan was captain had played in earlier games and was introduced but there was no member of the county champions in the parade. In 1996 Shannonbridge won the title and Anthony Kelly started some of the early games in 97 but by the Leinster Final there was no Bridge man on the starting team. Sean Grennan started at centre forward, he wasn’t one of the six best forwards in the county, he probably was one of the six best forwards in Ferbane because in truth he probably wasn’t a forward at all (Although Tommy Lyons was neither the first or last manager to deploy him there); he was a player asked to do a particular role and if he hadn’t done it so well Offaly won’t have won a Leinster. This isn’t to say ‘our lad’ or ‘your lad’ or ‘their lad’ isn’t worth their place but if people want carry chips on their shoulders about how their club is treated, I suggest adopting a Galway hurling club, they just do it better.

Modern managers turn over quickly. Successful ones and successful means different things in different counties last three or four years (excluding Tyrone). The issues listed above existed before John Maughan and it appears they will remain after him, but that’s not to suggest management isn’t important. Like them or loath them there have been three stabilising management teams over the last ten years. Tom Cribbins, Pat Flanagans and John Maughans. The regimes of Paul Rouse and Tom Coffey were uplifting cameos but too short to have changed the general picture. Everyone would hope for something a little more than Stability but the instability of 2014 and 2018 took time to recover from. In the Spring of 2018 we were in a bad place and I would wager we survived in part because Westmeath had very little to play for on the final day of the league. After the Wicklow championship game we were bottom of the pile in Leinster. The qualifier defeat to the same opposition in 2014 was equally disheartening.
There were other games that seemed like missed chances. The 2011 defeats to Westmeath in the league and Limerick in the qualifiers, the 2015 qualifier loss to Kildare in Newbridge. the league game against Westmeath in 2015 and the Championship games against them in 2016 and 2017 were all frustrating. But for all that frustration I felt those teams were supremely honest battling against the odds to change things, to breakdown the defensive shields they always struggled against, to move things on. Falling short admittedly but with some kind of honour, if that word means anything. I feel the same now.

A division 4 title isn’t much to show for a decade that’s seemed like a constant battle for survival. There’s a lot of other teams battling away so I don’t know if you say they deserve better; but when I hear the pettiness, the bad faith arguments and the back handed comments about fellas who biggest crime is they refuse to hide when it goes wrong for them and go just as hard for the next ball, I know they deserve better from us.
Good Luck to them at the Weekend and Up Offaly

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Bord na Mona man
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Re: DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

Post by Bord na Mona man »

Great post white grass!
No harm in looking at the bigger picture every now and again.

frankthetank
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Re: DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

Post by frankthetank »

That is a fantastic post White Grass. Great comment about the Galway hurling clubs by the way.

Best of luck to the lads on Sunday.

Plain of the Herbs
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Re: DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

Post by Plain of the Herbs »

Great post, White Grass. I don't watch much football but I know there's certainly more to the game than selecting six defenders in the backs, six prolific scorers in attack, and letting them off to kick the ball as far as it will go.
Pat Donegan. Signed out of respect for players and all involved with Offaly.

Tmacmahon
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Re: DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

Post by Tmacmahon »

In fairness to management Niall and Anton starting.

Offaly 2-16
Carlow 0-13

Looking forward to this now !

SearingDrive
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Re: DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

Post by SearingDrive »

We all hope TMcMahon's prediction for Sunday is correct. White Grass, highlights two problems with Offaly, scoring goals, and beating Longford in league or championship. I suspect White Grass might be a Ferbane man, and perhaps connected to journalism, given his detailed analysis of football. Offaly footballers also have a difficulty dealing with teams reduced to 14 men, as with Tipperary recently, and Louth in last year's league.

We have had a high turnover in managers over recent years, while some have stabilised matters, Offaly have not challenged for promotion since 2016, under Pat Flanagan when they lost out to Clare on scoring difference, I think. In recent years Offaly have been in the lower half of the table, battling relegation.
Every body posting on this topic would like to see Offaly do better, and be contenders for promotion. I think this is a valid aspiration for Offaly supporters.

Fairplayalways
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Re: DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

Post by Fairplayalways »

Plain of the Herbs wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:23 pm Great post, White Grass. I don't watch much football but I know there's certainly more to the game than selecting six defenders in the backs, six prolific scorers in attack, and letting them off to kick the ball as far as it will go.
I dont think you or anyone from Offaly will have to worry about that...it will be more of the same, 2nd gear and hand on the handbrake just in case..

Fairplayalways
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Re: DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

Post by Fairplayalways »

SearingDrive wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:14 pm We all hope TMcMahon's prediction for Sunday is correct. White Grass, highlights two problems with Offaly, scoring goals, and beating Longford in league or championship. I suspect White Grass might be a Ferbane man, and perhaps connected to journalism, given his detailed analysis of football. Offaly footballers also have a difficulty dealing with teams reduced to 14 men, as with Tipperary recently, and Louth in last year's league.

We have had a high turnover in managers over recent years, while some have stabilised matters, Offaly have not challenged for promotion since 2016, under Pat Flanagan when they lost out to Clare on scoring difference, I think. In recent years Offaly have been in the lower half of the table, battling relegation.
Every body posting on this topic would like to see Offaly do better, and be contenders for promotion. I think this is a valid aspiration for Offaly supporters.
I am a bit surprised this post has stood, I hinted at whitegrasses long long post the other day being that, too long, and my reply never published, yet here a poster is being almost cited for being connected to a club for his (or her views) and the name is abit of a give away anyway...and the post stands..not the end of the world but none of us here are saying anyone should be hung drawn and quartered or anything, its just our views in a frank and honest manner...trying to idenetify who the authors are is not a nice route to be going down, no need for that, nothing is being said to justify that...but it stands:(

Fairplayalways
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Re: DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

Post by Fairplayalways »

I never took time to read the full lenght post..I did see reference to "near misses over the last decade or so..and they were that, but I dont think anyone of those game referred to were watershed moments in the delvopment/progress of Offaly football, if we did win them watershed games, as sure as night follows day, we would have fallen to a so called minnow in the next round more than likely..progress gone out the window if that happened..true we will never know but it is a fairly reasonable assumption, when you loose too many "watershed"games, it speaks for itself, and alot of them games are watershed games in hindsight when you look back now...If I were to pick out a definind game over the last 10 years or so for Offaly, I would pick the LSF semi final loss to Kildare in 2000, that team had been there more or less since 1997, had a great bit of experience built up, and I genuinely think if we could have won that game, Leinster at the least was ours (I know we cant say that for sure) but I think we may have won out Leinster and even if we didnt win the All Ireland, it would have been a good base for that team to leave..that team sort of petered out in the seasons after that I think...anyway, just my observations, good posts all round I have to say...

Tmacmahon
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Re: DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

Post by Tmacmahon »

Great post white grass.
In terms of stabilising managers over the last 10 years, Cribbin and Flanagan yes both going close to promotion and even though both were far from perfect they did a good job. Maughan can’t be regarded as that, it’s been a turbulent reign in some respects, avoiding relegation on the last day of the league two years running and the ‘good’ run in last years Championship was more luck of the draw ( and thank God because it was great to have a few championship outings) Than a stabilising manager.
Ultimately we need to beat Kildare next week to show improvement and with Kildare not having a game under their belts it may be a brilliant time to take that scalp.
Player unrest was evident or rather player treatment!!
Judging by interviews that young Tierney and joe ( il advised imo) did with the tribune it paints a bad picture of management. The lack of empathy Was strange. I know The Nigal Dunne thing was a separate thing but I read an interview earlier in the year in the Irish times and again it struck me as bad man management and in this case it made me uneasy.

Flanagan ultimately never took a scalp either and that has to be pointed out . We improved under pay Flanagan and he is still probably the best option rn

Cribbin has a great 2010 and overall I would agree with him .


To turn out attention to Sunday , I think it’s a strong team and Carlow are actually missing 3 of their best players in Brendan Murphy, Sean Murphy and st ledger.

I’m not in any way disrespecting Carlow when I see us winning easily.

Isn’t great to have the games back .

SearingDrive
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Re: DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

Post by SearingDrive »

Tmacmahon wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:51 pm Great post white grass.
In terms of stabilising managers over the last 10 years, Cribbin and Flanagan yes both going close to promotion and even though both were far from perfect they did a good job. Maughan can’t be regarded as that, it’s been a turbulent reign in some respects, avoiding relegation on the last day of the league two years running and the ‘good’ run in last years Championship was more luck of the draw ( and thank God because it was great to have a few championship outings) Than a stabilising manager.
Ultimately we need to beat Kildare next week to show improvement and with Kildare not having a game under their belts it may be a brilliant time to take that scalp.
Player unrest was evident or rather player treatment!!
Judging by interviews that young Tierney and joe ( il advised imo) did with the tribune it paints a bad picture of management. The lack of empathy Was strange. I know The Nigal Dunne thing was a separate thing but I read an interview earlier in the year in the Irish times and again it struck me as bad man management and in this case it made me uneasy.

Flanagan ultimately never took a scalp either and that has to be pointed out . We improved under pay Flanagan and he is still probably the best option rn

Cribbin has a great 2010 and overall I would agree with him .


To turn out attention to Sunday , I think it’s a strong team and Carlow are actually missing 3 of their best players in Brendan Murphy, Sean Murphy and st ledger.

I’m not in any way disrespecting Carlow when I see us winning easily.

Isn’t great to have the games back .
Let's try and beat Carlow first before thinking about Kildare.

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Re: DIV 3 NFL predictions and general chit chat.

Post by white grass »

Breaking vicious circles

The Cribbin and Flanagan eras had their dark days too. In 2010 a club delegate called the Leinster first round defeat a ‘disgrace’ at a county board meeting, after Wexford game in 2011 the team were whipping boys until they beat Monaghan. Armagh defeat in 2017 there were delegates describing things as a ‘scandal’ and suggesting that the players won’t perform for the manager. Both Managers term ended because they couldn’t get out of Division 3. The flux that developed in the aftermath of their departure saw Offaly dealing with getting out of division 3 by trying to stay out or get out of Division 4 rather than into Division 2.

2011 Westmeath game would have guaranteed promotion to Division 2, the qualifier defeat to Limerick lead to Tom Cribbins resignation and Offaly were relegated to Division 4 twice in the next three years. 2016 loss to Westmeath in the league denied Offaly promotion to Division 2. The 2017 championship loss ended Flanagan’s reign and was followed by 2018 which is for the most part would be best forgotten if it didn’t serve as a warning.

Most of our opponents this year have experience of playing at a higher level than us and have had underage success in the last decade. The teams in Division 3 are not duds, just waiting to fall over if a different Offaly team is picked. The rejigging of the league 13 years ago badly damaged Offaly. The teams regularly in the top 16 got to sharpen their skills on a grindstone building strength that stood to them in championship or if they went down, while those who failed to get out of Division 3 quickly were tied to a millstone, fearful of relegation and facing quality teams coming down every year, leading to a turnover of both players and managers which hampers development. Using the NFL tables as a very inexact barometer Offaly's overall ranking out of 32 counties from 2010-2020 was: 22. 20. 24 relegated. 26 promoted. 24 relegated. 26 promoted. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22.

It’s a vicious circle but it can be broken

Clare, Westmeath and Laois, Tipperary have found a way to compete. There’s a lot of great young talent coming on. 2018 was bad but it did harden a lot of lads to the reality of grinding things out and for that reason there was no repeat of 2012-2014. No matter who the manager is Promotion should be the target. A crack Tipperary at home and its past time an Ulster side was taken out. This requires a lot of self-belief, not something engendered by continual conversation about how such and such is better. Framing every conversation about the team around who isn’t on it, is lazy, in many cases deeply unhelpful to the players that are been built up (to be knocked down) and most importantly on occasion crosses the line to being deeply disrespectful to those players who are. There’s a motto ‘One Team, One Fight’ but that there are a great many people out there whose motto is ‘One Team as long as our lad is on it, and if he’s not to hell with them’; I hold such people in low regard. I hold those who carry on fighting that fight in high regard

The old warmonger Donald Rumsfeld use to talk about 'known unknowns' and 'unknown unknowns'
Tomorrow and this championship is a 'unknown unknown'. Knockout in November after a bizarre year, in empty stadiums. Today a Cavan team struggling for form beat a Monaghan side who defeated Tyrone, Mayo and drew with Dublin in the Spring. There's a lot of things we cant predict. Is there like premiership teams one bounce in Carlow after the management change, will they be less rigid than before. Can we find gaps, can we work goals. Last year Offaly were at their best when they had a month to prepare for cracking Meath's kick out, tomorrow they ll be learning on their feet. Niall Carews looked Offaly up and down for five years and in many ways they are something of a known quantity to him, but Carlow have turned from totally predictable into a mystery. Its a game Offaly should win but any complacency and they ll be in trouble

There’s only one team tomorrow and only one fight
I wish them well

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