General Election time

[Bord na Mona man]

Now that the country is a smoking wreck, we have a General Election on the horizon.

What are your predictions for Laois-Offaly?
I'd guess 2FF, 2FG, 1 Other (either Labour, Independent or Sinn Fein)

[Lone Shark]

Posted this up on GAAboard, but the same thing applies....

In Offaly I would still expect 2 FF to return, probably Cowen with Moloney. Fleming will lose out, but sadly a national vote of 20% would still translate to 35% here, and that will push two of them over the line. FG will actually struggle to hold two since Olwyn has walked, but there still is a big FG vote in her area and it has to go somewhere. I expect them to nominate someone like Nicola Hogan, and between getting a FG vote and getting a vote from North Offaly who haven't had a TD since Ger Hyland, she should get in. Charlie Flanagan safe as houses, probably on the first count.

The fifth seat is interesting. The three contenders are Brian Stanley (SF), John Leahy (Ind) and Sean O'Brien (Lab). Stanley is getting good reviews over in Laois and a lot of those people who have the view of "They're all the same" could go his way. O'Brien is the best Labour can muster, but Laois/Offaly is typical of their problem - they simply do not have a presence in the area, and one old timer county councillor and a couple of town councillors between the two counties says it all. They'll get a vote, but O'Brien doesn't have enough about him at all to get the seat in my view. If Labour can win this one, they will get well over 50 seats nationally.

I'd say myself that John Leahy would be the narrow favourite for the fifth seat right now. He's been quite prominent since his election to local council, he has good GAA connections, he's quite energetic, young and well meaning, and he'll mop up a lot of votes around Birr who won't have a good candidate.

So my guess for Laois Offaly is 2FG, 2FF, 1 Ind.

[Bord na Mona man]

There is one man who could have steered us away from this economic mess had he been elected in 2007. That man was John Bracken!

What are the chances of Tom Parlon or Pat Gallagher returning? Gallagher surfed the 'Spring tide' in 1992 and he would the obvious Labour person who could capatilise on a national swell of support to the party.

John Leahy would be one to watch. I think there could be 20+ Independents returned to the Dail next time.
Independents can clean up because:
1) You'll have life long Fianna Failers who are abandoning ship, but would still never ever vote Fine Gael or Labour. Voting for an Independent would be a compromise they can stomach.
2) The alternative government is still not inspiring the voters. Fine Gael have an open goal and they still aren't taking advantage. If voters aren't seeing really credible alternative, they'll scatter their votes.
3) Now that we are in meltdown, people will vote for who can lever the most for their constituency. Its every man for himself (well moreso than usual). The Independents campaigning to keep hospitals, garda stations and fire stations open should profit.

[bracknaghboy]

In Offaly I would still expect 2 FF to return, probably Cowen.

I assume only people in Laois and Offaly smoking crack cocaine will be voting for Cowen? He should be ran out of the country.

[Lone Shark]

He might not run, but it's foolish to think that there won't be 8,000 - 10,000 hard core people who'll vote for him if he doesn't. Plus they might ask him to run and not show up much - for all FF's strength in Offaly, there aren't too many obvious candidates to succeed him.

[Bord na Mona man]

In Offaly I would still expect 2 FF to return, probably Cowen.

I assume only people in Laois and Offaly smoking crack cocaine will be voting for Cowen? He should be ran out of the country.

Assuming Cowen ran, he'd get back in. With a much reduced vote obviously.
A couple of thousand will be adamant he did a great job - Sure it was Lehman Brothers that caused all this! Some of them mightn't even be crack-cocaine addicts. More will think he was unlucky, or hard done by and give him the sympathetic vote. There may also be a school of thought that he wouldn't be a bad TD, but isn't statesman or senior minister material.

He is probably finished as a front line politician, whether he wants to live out an existence as an opposition foot soldier in the back seats of the Dail is the question.
Bearing in mind that he would have no scope to attack the government of the day. He would be always be dismissed as the man who lead the country to bankruptcy. Which is fair game, Cowen would be first in the queue to put in the boot, were the situations reversed.

[corner back]

Never mind Cowen. There are hardcore fianna failers who'd vote for Ger Killally if he ran. It's easy to forget that at the height of the property boom he was chairperson of the offaly county council. And we wonder why the country is where it's at.

Is Leahy definitely going for it. What does he stand for bar being a good GAA man? Is he to be our new Jackie Healy Rae? The way the numbers are stacking up it is unlikely that the independents will hold much sway this time. Thank God.

I'm tempted to vote labour in an attempt to keep Kenny out of the big job. Don't know the candidates though.

[Plain of the Herbs]

On the face of it I’d tend to go with the 2-2-1 opinion of LS & BnMM above. Then when you think about it there’s alot of uncertainty as to who’ll actually run.

Firstly, we don’t know as yet who the Blues will pick to succeed Olwyn Enright. Will they pick two candidates to run in Offaly, or one? Nationally they really should have designs on an overall majority and to do so they should at least target 3 seats here. Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy may well get a nomination. Maybe Hogan in the far end, if they run two in Offaly, though Molly Buckley was nominated to run last time and may well be again. (Who are the 6 FG nominees and how many are they running? Someone might assist please).

Brian Cowen will still get a quota himself. There’ll still be a decent personal vote there for him. There’s no word of a FF convention yet though at the moment the three sitting TDs will run, probably with John Foley running again. One of the 2 Laois FFers is certain to lose out. Just to be different to Lone Shark, I’ll say Moloney will be the one lose out! He seems to be far closer to Cowen than Fleming is for which he might suffer. FG running someone in North Offaly could cost Moloney votes in Portarlington.

There’s also the possibility that Cowen, if deposed as party leader, would not run at all. That would put the cat among the FF pigeons in a big way. John Foley would make no impact in West Offaly. I wonder would Barry Cowen be the most likely to contest his brother’s seat in that case. Remember South Offaly (after the Black Bull) is in North Tipperary for the election so that effectively rules out Peter Ormond. There’s no-one else in South Offaly, while there’s no-one viable in West Offaly either.

In that scenario, John Leahy would be a shoe-in. Leahy is well positioned to win a seat anyway and is building a decent profile since his election to the Council. Seats like that are won on the ground, far from the bluster on TV. If he can crack Tullamore Town then Labour can say nite-nite. Leahy will also need to make something of an impact in rural Laois (The Shinners will have Portlaoise sewn up). The Stanley fella in Portlaoise is also a possibility. They’ll need to crack Tullamore and, though they have a Town Councillor there, transfers between the two counties are rare. A rare exceptions being the IFA/PD combination.

At this stage I’d say Cowen, Flanagan, another FG, Fleming and Leahy. That’s if Cowen runs. If he doesn’t I’d say Flanagan, Fleming, another FG, Leahy & Stanley.

Nationally a blue/red government is a certainty at the moment. It may well be FG led, but it will be Labour driven and Labour will take all the plum ministries, including Finance, as happened in 1994. A Labour Finance minister is something the country can ill-afford at this time. Inda Kinny has the confidence of little more than half his parliamentary party. The election may be called just in time to save his political skin.

[bracknaghboy]

If Cowen runs (I doubt he will) he will obviously get elected. That will then confirm to me that we as a county and country deserve everything we get

[Bord na Mona man]

The only way Cowen won't run is if he is toppled by his own party as leader.
Meaning we'd need to have a budget, a FF leadership contest and an election all done and dusted before any sort of stability could be restored to the economy.

A few disgruntled back benchers, who expect to be voted out, may heave against him, hoping to benefit from any bounce in public support a change of leader may bring.

[kinnittyman]

I heard a rumour today in work that Brian Whelehan will run for Fine Gael. I couldn't believe it. Nichola (Why the fcuk does she spell it like that?) Hogan is as about as popular in Edenderry as Brian Cowen is in the rest of the country. And she's about as known around the rest of Laois/Offaly as the actual cost of Terminal 2 in Dublin Airport.

[SearingDrive]

Posted this up on GAAboard, but the same thing applies....

In Offaly I would still expect 2 FF to return, probably Cowen with Moloney. Fleming will lose out, but sadly a national vote of 20% would still translate to 35% here, and that will push two of them over the line. FG will actually struggle to hold two since Olwyn has walked, but there still is a big FG vote in her area and it has to go somewhere. I expect them to nominate someone like Nicola Hogan, and between getting a FG vote and getting a vote from North Offaly who haven't had a TD since Ger Hyland, she should get in. Charlie Flanagan safe as houses, probably on the first count.

The fifth seat is interesting. The three contenders are Brian Stanley (SF), John Leahy (Ind) and Sean O'Brien (Lab). Stanley is getting good reviews over in Laois and a lot of those people who have the view of "They're all the same" could go his way. O'Brien is the best Labour can muster, but Laois/Offaly is typical of their problem - they simply do not have a presence in the area, and one old timer county councillor and a couple of town councillors between the two counties says it all. They'll get a vote, but O'Brien doesn't have enough about him at all to get the seat in my view. If Labour can win this one, they will get well over 50 seats nationally.

I'd say myself that John Leahy would be the narrow favourite for the fifth seat right now. He's been quite prominent since his election to local council, he has good GAA connections, he's quite energetic, young and well meaning, and he'll mop up a lot of votes around Birr who won't have a good candidate.

So my guess for Laois Offaly is 2FG, 2FF, 1 Ind.

Lone Shark quoted Ger Hyland as a North Offaly TD, should that be Ger Connolly former FF TD, from Bracknagh?
I wouldn't vote for SF in a fit, Ineffective in the Dail, more useful at breaking down the gates of Leinster House with a mob.

[Treasurer]

.... Remember South Offaly (after the Black Bull) is in North Tipperary for the election ....

[Lone Shark]

Posted this up on GAAboard, but the same thing applies....

In Offaly I would still expect 2 FF to return, probably Cowen with Moloney. Fleming will lose out, but sadly a national vote of 20% would still translate to 35% here, and that will push two of them over the line. FG will actually struggle to hold two since Olwyn has walked, but there still is a big FG vote in her area and it has to go somewhere. I expect them to nominate someone like Nicola Hogan, and between getting a FG vote and getting a vote from North Offaly who haven't had a TD since Ger Hyland, she should get in. Charlie Flanagan safe as houses, probably on the first count.

The fifth seat is interesting. The three contenders are Brian Stanley (SF), John Leahy (Ind) and Sean O'Brien (Lab). Stanley is getting good reviews over in Laois and a lot of those people who have the view of "They're all the same" could go his way. O'Brien is the best Labour can muster, but Laois/Offaly is typical of their problem - they simply do not have a presence in the area, and one old timer county councillor and a couple of town councillors between the two counties says it all. They'll get a vote, but O'Brien doesn't have enough about him at all to get the seat in my view. If Labour can win this one, they will get well over 50 seats nationally.

I'd say myself that John Leahy would be the narrow favourite for the fifth seat right now. He's been quite prominent since his election to local council, he has good GAA connections, he's quite energetic, young and well meaning, and he'll mop up a lot of votes around Birr who won't have a good candidate.

So my guess for Laois Offaly is 2FG, 2FF, 1 Ind.

Lone Shark quoted Ger Hyland as a North Offaly TD, should that be Ger Connolly former FF TD, from Bracknagh?
I wouldn't vote for SF in a fit, Ineffective in the Dail, more useful at breaking down the gates of Leinster House with a mob.

Sorry, my mistake. I think Hyland was the Laois TD from back then?

Just to run through the few bits on this thread, I know Fine Gael consider Birr to be heartland, but Brian Whelahan needed to win that council seat to be in with a shout of getting a nomination. I can't see him getting the nod in this environment.

I'm surprised to hear that Nichola Hogan is disliked, since I had heard that she was quite well regarded, but then I guess the Quinn lad from Rhode (I am right in saying Quinn?) might get the nod instead. Either way the people of North Offaly haven't managed to get a FF TD over the line for a long time, so there is a strong possibility that they might decide to go FG instead.

A potential wild card if Cowen doesn't run, who was mentioned to me by someone else today, was Sinéad Dooley. She would tick a lot of the boxes in that she'd appeal to West Offaly, rural South Offaly and Tullamore by virtue of birth, marriage and residence. I know the FF brand is toxic right now but there are probably 20000-25,000 voters in that combined area. 20% for Fianna Fáil nationally (much and all as I'd love to believe that they'd go lower!) is the most likely estimate, and as I said above, that would in my estimation translate to 35% or more in Offaly. That would give Sinéad 6,000- 7,000 votes or so allowing for a 60% turnout, which would leave her in a great position. If Cowen doesn't run, in my view she's the only Offaly candidate who might have a squeak. Indeed if FF have any sense, they could end up only running one Offaly candidate at all, in which case not alone would she be the best option but it would really open the door for Hogan/Quinn and put a little bit more pressure on Leahy.

I thought Stanley would do well the last time but he really got nothing outside of Portlaoise and I'd wonder if anything has changed in that regard. They did pick up a few councillors, but there really isn't a groundswell of support there.

[naasmanxrhode]

If Cowan runs (and he will) and FG without Enright, it will be 3 FF AND 2 FG, no change.