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Who will lose or gain a seat this year.

Won't be voting greens anyway with them closing down the power stations

Listening to Ivan Yates yesterday evening he thinks - Cowen (FF), Fleming (FF), Flanagan (FG) & Stanley (SF) with the last seat coming down to a bit of a dog fight. He reckons that Ormond (FF) will take it. I wouldn't rule out John Leahy (IND) though. Carol Nolan has lost a portion of her votes with the redrawn constituency and is no longer with Sinn Fein, while Marcella Corcoran Kennedy (FG) is also expected to lose out.

Who said that the Greens closed down the power stations? Get your facts right please.

empty promises the whole lot of them, only want to line their own pockets same old same old shit every year. more people on the road sleeping rough, look at the health care , look how people who worked for 40 or more years have to go on the dole before they are pension age. i know people died for the right to vote but they must be turning in their graves to see the shite thats going on now.

Few things:

Plenty of jobs to plug the gap between 66/67

Less people this month homeless

Someone has to put there hand up for the job and the best of luck to them

Country needs a bit of consistency and bite the bullet on making a few strategic decisions to protect the long term future, (broadband, public transport, get more jobs out the country, and tackle health administrators to do their job and make proper changes-implement Slainte care).

Midlands needs more jobs with a big focus on tourism options for local business to progress being a key opportunity.

More money for more hurling GDA's would be great also!

oneshot wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 7:41 pm empty promises the whole lot of them, only want to line their own pockets same old same old shit every year. more people on the road sleeping rough, look at the health care , look how people who worked for 40 or more years have to go on the dole before they are pension age. i know people died for the right to vote but they must be turning in their graves to see the shite thats going on now.

Then go out to vote, and have your say.

Laois will return the outgoing 3 deputies. Offaly has one FF seat, there will be a battle in south Offaly between Marcella Corcoran Kennedy of FG, and Peter Ormond of FF, for the last seat. With proper vote management FF can take a second seat.
John Leahy, and outgoing independent TD, Carol Nolan, are also in the mix in South Offaly.
None of the bigger parties have a candidate in North Offaly, which returned Ger Connolly of FF in the past. Pippa Hackett of the Greens based in Geashill could pick up votes, and be a dark horse/ filly?
Portarlington is gone to Kildare South for this election, wonder how that will work out?

first_touch wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:55 pm Who said that the Greens closed down the power stations? Get your facts right please.

They are certainly not helping to keep them open

I see the first three as home and hosed in Cowen Flemming and Flanagan and in that order. Brian Stanley should also be a shoe in for a seat but expect that he will lose some votes with Portarlington moved into Kildare and won't get it as easy as the othersin situ....

The last seat is a real toss up between a few. Marcella Corcoran Kennedy and Peter Ormonde with the big parties behind them will be favourites though I can see an upset here. Carol Nolan is a contender but I expect her to lose out without the Sinn Fein backing which will most likely see Stanley home - or likes of Ken Smollen staying in longer than expected. Incidentally all the considered runners for 5th spot as I see it here including aforementioned and Independent John Leahy are all from around same area (covering Kinnity Birr Kilcormac Ferbane areas).

If Cowen gets in early (which I expect) it will come down to vote transfers on excess which could be very interesting. Many will give a 1,2 to Fianna Fail Cowen Ormond or Flemming Ormond tickets but many (in Offaly at least) who don't necessarily vote party political will give a No2 to John Leahy who has done a lot of good work as a councillor and was very successful beating Ormond to the post in local elections. I can't see Cowens no 2s going to Marcella C Kennedy (Would be like a Man United fan shouting for Liverpool - It just isn't going to happen) and as such, she will be pipped by either of those other contenders. Flanagan's transfers will be crucial to her but I expect the Fine Gael vote to be much lower than previous which may affect Flanagan transfers. I think a lot of people are a bit miffed with bothe FF and FG at present and I see John Leahy picking up a few extra No1's as a result - and being very close given all of above and has every chance of causing major upset.

On the other hand, Portlaoise man Noel Touhy could run a big surprise if that South Offaly vote is very much split in 4 and could do much better than people expect. He has been an active community worker and councillor in Laois for last while and appears to be someone who could go further than expected. Beyond that I don't see likes of Ken Smollen or Pippa Hackett getting close but running will help build their profile for next election and with their councillor experience behind them, may have a shout further down the track......

As I see it
1 Cowen
2 Flemming
3 Flanagan
4 Stanley
5 Leahy V Ormond will go to the wire....

So its done and dusted and all settling in to new era. Somewhat surprised by nature of Stanley dominance though expected him to land seat comfortably. Was out on Nolan losing out due to lack of Sinn Fein backing. Think the pro-life stance and leaving Sinn Fein demonstrated her to be very principled and it stood to her as she scored very well on most count transfers.

As it turned out, John Leahy edged out both MCK and Peter Ormond which was a feat in itself. In any other given year where Sinn Fein were not as dominant, it could have seen either himself or Pippa Hackett (who did very well) for the greens into the Dail. If FF and FG sit back and let SF take their turn at the wheel, there could be a significant swingback against SF when next election turns around. They have a high volume of newbies, many of whom struggled to gain and lost seats in local elections. there are some quite capable people in their party there is no doubt, but they would be a long way off (experience wise at least) in relation to running a country.

That said, I am delighted as it shakes it up a lot. The political elite (families with connections) have had a good run for too long and there are too many people in this country in cushy positions because of their "political connections". Sinn Fein might just shake it up and rattle a few cages and bring about some form of positive change and more equality of opportunity for the better of all....

Historic election result, the old order is changed forever. I didn't see Carol Nolan retaining her seat, well done to her.

It is up to SF to form a government, as the party with the highest vote. With all the left parties, she would be well short of a majority, some of the independents are of an FG or FF background, and may not support the lefties.

A spell in government could see support fall for the prospective government.
Big decision ahead for FF, about their next step. They could be better off in opposition, with FG, marking the new government.

From this morning's electoral commission report:

The Commission recommends that the constituency of Offaly should align with the Co. Offaly boundary.

While some of the submissions called for the retention of the breach of county boundaries in and around the town of Portarlington, the Commission
considered that removal of the breach would be the best approach.

The Commission considers the variance of -6.34% in the Offaly constituency to be acceptable in light of the fact that the Offaly constituency would align with its county boundary.

This would be the first time that the Offaly constituency would fully align with its county boundary.

A warm welcome back to the fold to our long-lost Gracefield brothers and sisters, and I think most people would agree that this is a welcome development overall.

Away somewhere else ta fuk with this election shite

Dodge83 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 11:16 am Away somewhere else ta fuk with this election shite

Out of curiosity, what did you think you were going to find when you clicked onto a thread with the title "Election 2020 Laois Offaly"?

Is it an oversimplification to suggest Offaly will return 1 FF, 1 FG + 1 Carol Nolan?
While Leix return 1 FF, 1 FG + 1 SF.

Plain of the Herbs wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 5:53 pm Is it an oversimplification to suggest Offaly will return 1 FF, 1 FG + 1 Carol Nolan?
While Leix return 1 FF, 1 FG + 1 SF.

Yes.

My initial prediction would be for Offaly to return 1FF, 1SF + Carol Nolan however if Barry Cowen chooses to run in the European Elections then that FF seat may not be as secure as some might expect. While SF have no presence in Offaly, with the party polling where it is right now you'd have to expect they can take 1 seat and Carol Nolan is a formidable candidate so I'd expect her to hold on. FG would be next in line if any of those three were to slip.

In Laois, Stanley is nailed on for SF with Flanagan of FG and Fleming of FF both still likely to hold their seats although both will be under threat from a 2nd SF candidate if Stanley can transfer a decent chunk of votes.