SearingDrive wrote: Enda did a good job in pulling FG into shape after the 2002 election blitz, and has made them serious contenders for Government. With a different leader could they get that elusive overall majority as the largest party for the first time since the foundation of the state?
Not sure I'd agree that Kenny has done much, I think it's more of a case that FF screwed up so bad. If they had any sort of leader they'd be in a much better position to form a goverment of their own without depending on Gilmore.
The whole thing is a mess right now. A good tatic for Cowen and Co right now would be to cut the ministers wages by something crazy (maybe 50%), take away all the cars & drivers for minsters and a lot of the other benifits that they get. Their not going to be in power in 3 months so it would be a good kick in the nuts for the opposition as they could hardly push against it. It could also be seen a a positive for FF right now!
Either way it makes no difference who gets in there FG/Lb will just blame the previous goverment for everything for the next 8 years, FF will sit back and have pot shots for the next 8 years and the country will go no where. Until we elect qualified people into the correct positions we will fumble around in the wildenress.
How many Multi-national companies would put
a Lawyer as CEO
a Social Science graduate as Vice president
a lawyer as CFO
someone with an Arts degree over a Medical business unit
Someone with an Arts degree over Enterprise, Trade and Innovation
etc........
SearingDrive wrote: Enda did a good job in pulling FG into shape after the 2002 election blitz, and has made them serious contenders for Government. With a different leader could they get that elusive overall majority as the largest party for the first time since the foundation of the state?
Not sure I'd agree that Kenny has done much, I think it's more of a case that FF screwed up so bad. If they had any sort of leader they'd be in a much better position to form a goverment of their own without depending on Gilmore.
The whole thing is a mess right now. A good tatic for Cowen and Co right now would be to cut the ministers wages by something crazy (maybe 50%), take away all the cars & drivers for minsters and a lot of the other benifits that they get. Their not going to be in power in 3 months so it would be a good kick in the nuts for the opposition as they could hardly push against it. It could also be seen a a positive for FF right now!
Either way it makes no difference who gets in there FG/Lb will just blame the previous goverment for everything for the next 8 years, FF will sit back and have pot shots for the next 8 years and the country will go no where. Until we elect qualified people into the correct positions we will fumble around in the wildenress.
Enda brought FG from 31seats to 54 in 2007!. As regards getting qualified people for cabinet, just look at the FG front bench.
Enda is a teacher, as is Michael Noonan Finance spokesperson. Leo Varadkar and James Reilly are medical doctors. Richard Bruton is an economist.
It won't be any different under a new administration, but that won't prevent them giving it their best shot. That applies to all parties.
The US appoint people to cabinet based on their particular expertise. In most of Europe it's a party system, The US is a presidential form of government.
How many Multi-national companies would put
a Lawyer as CEO
a Social Science graduate as Vice president
a lawyer as CFO
someone with an Arts degree over a Medical business unit
Someone with an Arts degree over Enterprise, Trade and Innovation
etc........
The picture became a lot clearer at the weekend, with Labour and FG conventions making their selections.
Labour have shot themselves in the foot with a cannon, with their selection of John Whelan, former editor of the Leinster Express. I don't know the man individually, but he was absolutely foisted on the membership by HQ, with the result that in a conference with 44 delegates attending, 33 walked out. How Labour think that they can possibly get a man elected in this constituency without hitting the canvassing trail hard is a mystery to me and if they have no canvassers, they have no hope.
Fine Gael were similarly baffling to me. They've gone with a three person ticket, which would be the rational course - except that they've put in two in Offaly and only one in Laois. The result of this will be that Charlie Flanagan will come home with a huge surplus, but they'll struggle to get a second person over the line, while two in Laois and one in Offaly would have seen them pushing hard for three seats. Seriously, it's as if there's a conspiracy across all the parties to make sure that FF don't get hit too hard.
The two in Offaly nominated are Liam Quinn and Marcella-Corcoran-Kennedy. I presume the logic with MCK is that she's living in Rath and visible around Birr, so they hope she'll pick up the votes from the Enright dynasty. She's also quite likely to be the only remotely electable female candidate, and maybe even the only female candidate of any kind. It doesn't change the fact that a large chunk of the Birr area has been hived off into the Tipp North constituency, and MCK was unable to get over the line in a local election last time around. I've no idea where they think that 7000 first preferences are going to come from for her.
The only other effect of her nomination is that she throws a bit of a spanner in the works on John Leahy. If the south area of the county wants to have their own TD, they'll have to choose between those two and I think they're likely to miss out entirely. I still think Leahy would beat her, but he needed to have that area to himself.
Liam Quinn on the other hand should get over the line. Dyed in the wool FG transfers from Flanagan will probably go to him, and if the people of North Offaly who have been hammered with increased fuel costs, negative equity and unemployment more than most, don't turn to an opposition candidate from their heartland, then you'd really have to wonder at the psychology of it all. Seriously, they've sided with FF for the last couple of elections and it has got them nowhere, now surely they will look at this election as a chance to get represented again.
There's actually an outside chance that we could end up with four Laois TD's if North Offaly people side with Foley. The scattering of the FG vote could see the three sitting FF, Flanagan and Brian Stanley all returned. As it is Stanley is now looking long odds on as far as I can tell since he'll pick up a lot of potential Labour votes, particularly with Pearse Doherty playing a blinder for SF.
My best guess though is it'll be Flanagan, Cowen, Stanley, Moloney, Quinn, in that order.
Kevin Egan. Signed out of respect for players and all involved with Offaly.
Re: Stanley and Sinn Fein.
I still think it would take a big shift in mindset for him to get elected. How much will Sinn Fein widen their vote base by?
Stanley got 3,656 1st preferences the last time, compared to 7,242 of John Moloney who was the final candidate to get elected.
Their traditional vote comes from those with Republican sentiments (obviously) and in the last 10-15 years they've worked hard to get the skanger vote. Leix-Offaly doesn't have a strong hardcore of either. While Stanley might have the disaffected vote in Portlaoise sewn up, the rest of constituency mightn't offer as ripe pickings.
If the Shinners are on a roll nationally and winning 15 or 20 seats, then perhaps he'll get in. But otherwise I can't see a localised vote swing.
Stanley has been done a load of favours here, each of which individully will be worth maybe a 1000 votes to him, by my own personal guesswork:
(1) Labour have picked a candidate that their own party doesn't want. It's all very well to talk of a "Gilmore Gale", but Eamon can't stand in every constituency and people need to connect with their local candidate. Whelan just doesn't give them this. I sympathise with Labour in the sense that they just don't have that candidate, but people who want to genuinely go against the government, of which there are thousands, will look for an alternative and Stanley/SF will give them that.
(2) FG have declined the option of running another Laois candidate. That leaves a lot of open ground for Stanley to attack.
(3) Doherty seems to have captured the mood of the people in the way the other opposition parties don't seem to have managed. Michael Noonan is good individually on finance and seems to have got some support, but as we've seen on this thread, Enda's lack of personality is a deal breaker for too many people. I don't like that people think that way, but they do.
(4) There will be a nationalistic dimension to this election in the way that there hasn't been before. We are perceived to have conceded sovereignty - many would argue that this is a good thing because we can't govern ourselves, but for those who don't like this idea, there is a tendency to revert to a nationalist ideal. Likewise, there will be a swing towards anti-immigration policy also, and that kind of extremist vote doesn't have anywhere to go. In the absence of a far right party, SF will hoover up some of that sentiment.
I stress all of this is just my own gut feeling, but simply put, if FF get 25% nationally, which is optimistic, that gives them maybe 35% in Laois/Offaly. That's a fall in 15000 votes which have to go somewhere. I honestly can't for the life of me figure out where they'll go if not to Stanley, and maybe Leahy.
Kevin Egan. Signed out of respect for players and all involved with Offaly.
Lone Shark wrote:
(2) FG have declined the option of running another Laois candidate. That leaves a lot of open ground for Stanley to attack.
It might, but is there a block of votes that could go to a Leix Fine Gael running mate of Flanagan, that Flanagan would not get himself?
I'm not sure what it is like on the ground and if there is that sort of Fine Gael pothole filler and fixer upper.
If people are still voting ideologically, Sinn Fein won't get many Fine Gael transfers. On the assumption that Fine Gael are still the party least likely to ever do business with Sinn Fein.
If the Flanagan Fine Gael voters in Leix are thinking in terms of governments, they'll give their transfer to the other party candidates and probably then to Labour.
I'm guessing that most people will vote party primarily and by county within that.
Though guessing the motives and logic of voters, when there is no filtering of the bewildered and cracked is probably futile!
Lone Shark wrote:
(2) FG have declined the option of running another Laois candidate. That leaves a lot of open ground for Stanley to attack.
It might, but is there a block of votes that could go to a Leix Fine Gael running mate of Flanagan, that Flanagan would not get himself?
I'm not sure what it is like on the ground and if there is that sort of Fine Gael pothole filler and fixer upper.
I think people do still go with local candidates first and foremost and Laois will vote Laois first and party second much more so than Offaly - they've proved that in the last few elections. If anything the effect has been exaggerated since Cowen took office since the feeling down there is that he did nothing for their half of the constituency. Flanagan will be perceived as home and hosed and while he'll get out the FG die hards who'll love the idea of potentially topping the poll over Cowen, for somebody in Laois who wants their own TD who's not part of this government, Stanley is probably the only show in town. If you want to maximise your punishment of FF, basically Laois offers you one sitting TD who's basically past the post, one farcical Labour candidate, and Stanley. I honestly think that will stand to him.
Kevin Egan. Signed out of respect for players and all involved with Offaly.
Lone Shark wrote:
It doesn't change the fact that a large chunk of the Birr area has been hived off into the Tipp North constituency,
How much of the Birr area has gone into constituency North Tipp? By the way I don't agree with this sort of crack where you move part of a county into another constituency - it's wrong.
Lone Shark wrote:
Liam Quinn on the other hand should get over the line. Dyed in the wool FG transfers from Flanagan will probably go to him, and if the people of North Offaly who have been hammered with increased fuel costs, negative equity and unemployment more than most, don't turn to an opposition candidate from their heartland, then you'd really have to wonder at the psychology of it all.
How has North Offaly been hammered for increased fuel costs more than most? I don't get that.
Basically anywhere South of the Black Bull, fpr those who know the territory. That's Coolderry, Shinrone, Ballyskenagh, Killavilla & moneygall/Dunkerrin. I must try and find a link to the boundary changes.
Changes like that are not new - in fact parts of South-west Wicklow have been in Carlow-Kilkenny for a good while now, while parts of Westmeath are in meath West (yep, Donie Cassidy can't vote for himself!).
The reason for the change is that Laois/Offaly was getting too big for a five-seat constituency. The options were to create two three-seat constituencies or to move part of the constituency into another.
moving Edenderry and it's hinterland seemed to be the most likely option prior to the announcement but it seems in the heel of the hunt the two favoured options were to move either South Offaly or West Laois into North Tipperary. Seán Fleming was thanked for his contributions in the acknowledgements to the document and so South Offaly was chosen.
turk wrote:How much of the Birr area has gone into constituency North Tipp? By the way I don't agree with this sort of crack where you move part of a county into another constituency - it's wrong.
Edit: Found it. Anyone who votes in the boxes at Gorteen, Aghancon, Ettagh, Shinrone, Cangort, Mountheaton, Barna, Templeharry, Dunkerrin & Cullenwaine will have Michael Lowry's mug on the posters outside their windows. Basically anyone who calls Roscrea 'town'. See pages 30 & 31 herewith. http://www.constituency-commission.ie/docs/con2007.pdf
Pat Donegan. Signed out of respect for players and all involved with Offaly.
Lone Shark wrote:
Liam Quinn on the other hand should get over the line. Dyed in the wool FG transfers from Flanagan will probably go to him, and if the people of North Offaly who have been hammered with increased fuel costs, negative equity and unemployment more than most, don't turn to an opposition candidate from their heartland, then you'd really have to wonder at the psychology of it all.
How has North Offaly been hammered for increased fuel costs more than most? I don't get that.
A larger chunk of people commuting long distances. Not too many people going to Dublin from Ferbane or Kilcormac, but there's a good few doing it from Edenderry and Rhode.
Kevin Egan. Signed out of respect for players and all involved with Offaly.
I feel that Fine Gael have made a major cock-up in not getting another Enright to run in Olwyn's place. Surely Mundy is the man to take this country forward!!!
Tar Man wrote:I feel that Fine Gael have made a major cock-up in not getting another Enright to run in Olwyn's place. Surely Mundy is the man to take this country forward!!!
I know this was tongue in cheek, but it does hit on one huge flaw in our system. Already three of our sitting TD's are second generation. This carry on where people consider a Dáil seat to be like a family heirloom, passed on from generation to generation is a quare load of muck altogether. Anything we could do to cut down on that would be a good thing.
Kevin Egan. Signed out of respect for players and all involved with Offaly.
FINE Gael is trying to get former IFA president Padraig Walshe to run in the General Election in an effort to repeat the success of fellow former farm leader Tom Parlon.
Mr Walshe is based in Laois-Offaly, which is also where Mr Parlon became a PD TD in 2002, after originally being approached by Fine Gael.
Fine Gael is trying to win three seats in Taoiseach Brian Cowen's home patch, but has been weakened by the decision of sitting TD Olwyn Enright to resign for family reasons.
Mr Walshe told the Irish Independent he was approached but had yet to be convinced by Fine Gael about becoming a candidate.
"I have been approached but I have no decision made. I don't think it's likely at this stage."
Meanwhile, Clare's All-Ireland winning hurling captain Anthony Daly has been mentioned as a potential Fianna Fail candidate to replace Defence Minister Tony Killeen.
Local party sources said the current Dublin hurling manager was being spoken of, but was not interested in running and would not be a candidate.
