Football League Permutations

[the bare biffo]

Thanks to Niall Mc, Offaly could still yet end up in any of the three divisions possible out of this league, though at this stage Div 3 looks the most likely, with the point lost (off the field) to Longford being crucial.

After 5 rounds:

Team Pts Diff
Monaghan 10 +38
Roscommon 8 +16
Longford 6 +29
Offaly 6 +23
Clare 4 -12

April 1st:
Mon v Off, Ros v Leit, Car v Long, Cla v Lond

April 7th:
Long v Cla, Lei v Mon, Off v Ros

I think Monaghan are a shoe in for 1st place.
For Offaly to finish 2nd they have to win their last two games and hope that Longford either lose or draw one of theirs or that they can close the points diff. Unlikely scenario.

For Offaly to finish in the bottom four, they need to lose their 2 final games and for Clare to win and draw or win their last two games. Since one of these is against London this is probably more likely than the first scenario above.

Probably the most likely scenario lies somewhere in the middle. Lose to Monaghan and win or draw against Roscommon to finish in Div 3.

[Bord na Mona man]

TBB,

what you might have overlooked is that Leitrim have a game in hand against London. If they did get a big win (18 points) over the cockneys, then that would put Offaly back into 5th place.

Worse still is that Offaly's last 2 games are against the top and second from top teams. Though luckily Leitrim have the exact same run in.
I think we'll manage Division 3 next year, but not by much.

[Lone Shark]

If you offered me division three right now I'd bite the hand off you, so to speak.

Leaving out Offaly's games, we can take it Monaghan are likely to finish ahead of us either way. Roscommon against Leitrim next week will be crucial, in that if Leitrim manage to take a result out of that game they'll be right in there with 8 points most likely.

Longford and Clare will both win next weekend, with decent points differences as well. They then play each other in Pearse Park the final week, meaning that unless Clare pull off an upset up there, we should finish ahead of them irrespective, but behind Longford.

The danger is Leitrim. In order for us to finish in division four, Leitrim will probably have to get a result either in Ros or at home to Monaghan. However you have to introduce the human factor in here.

Leitrim at home to Monaghan, if it was this weekend, would have been 1/3 odds on Monaghan. However let's just presume that Monaghan manage to beat us next weekend, thus guaranteeing division two and a playoff spot. That means that on the last week, in front of a baying crowd in Cloone/Carrick, Leitrim are playing for their championship lives with it all on the line while Monaghan have nothing to play for and will be trying out players and looking to avoid injury. If that situation pans out, Leitrim will be favourites for that match.

Shades of 2002 when Tyrone being already qualified for the semis meant that Cork sneaked a win over them, thus relegating us.

Overall, unless Leitrim pull off a shock in Ros next week, I think we're in big trouble - unless we get something out of Clones next weekend, it could be out of our hands.

[Bogman]

Yes we have to beat out Leitrim and Clare to achieve Division 3 status. I think we could possibly still edge in to Div 3 on points difference without winning another match if Longford beat Clare at Home and Leitrim lose to Roscommon & Monaghan. That would be a scary way to finish up though - we'd be depending on points difference in a big way.

[Bord na Mona man]

Bad times indeed if wins over Carlow, London and Clare are all we get in a league campagin.

[Lone Shark]

Obviously if we don't beat either Roscommon or Monaghan we don't deserve anything but division four.

What I'm worried about though is that we could lose in Monaghan, beat Roscommon and still end up in division four anyway, as in that it could be out of our hands come the final week.

[Kevin]

Agree with LS. If we can't beat either of those two we should quietly accept our fate (or the chance thereof).

It would be a nice lift if we could account for them both. Maybe a bit much to ask given our recnt run, buit out of the question? Hardly.

[Muck Savage]

Whens the U21 final? This could play into it as well in not playing one or two of them if it's the 14th for fear of injuries.
If we're looknig for a spot in Div 3 then we have to be able to win one if not two of the last tow games. I think they're starting to come into their own now after a horrific start in this league.
The next month is a big month for Offaly Football with the U21 and the possibility of Div 4 football. There is also the chance that if they win the last two that means Mon vs Leit is a big game, they could finish in Div 2. At this stage I'd take a Leinster U21 and Div 3.

[Loughers]

We shouldn't have lost to Leitrim. They've done f*ck all since beating us. According to Pat Roe in the Midland Tribune, we're well capable of beating Monaghan. I'll have whatever Pat's on. Any word on the score from the Longford game? Are we keeping our score?

[Bord na Mona man]

Any word on the score from the Longford game? Are we keeping our score?

I think Longford got the hint and shut their gobs about trying to pilfer Offaly's point difference. They were entitled to highlight the illegal player issue, but then trying to handicap Offaly in terms of the league table position is very unsporting.

Had Longford managed that, we would be in 5th position in the table as Leitrim (when they beat London) would be on equal points and with a better points difference.

[Lone Shark]

At this stage I'd take a Leinster U21 and Div 3.

That's extremely optimistic. By my calculations with the remaining games, we've about a 10% chance of division two (By now it's out of our hands - even if we win both games Longford only have to beat Carlow and Clare to close us out) and around a 30% chance of division 4.

Division 3 and winning the under 21 would be a great result from here.

[Bord na Mona man]

Allianz Football League Div 2A

P W D L For AG Diff Pts
1. Monaghan 6 6 0 0 4-90 5-48 39 12
2. Roscommon 6 4 0 2 6-71 6-58 13 8
3. Longford 6 2 1 3 13-70 3-75 25 6*
4. Offaly 6 3 1 2 6-81 6-59 22 6*
5. Leitrim 5 3 0 2 6-54 3-57 6 6
6. Clare 6 3 0 3 6-68 6-67 1 6
7. Carlow 6 1 0 5 5-58 10-81 -38 2
8. London 5 0 0 5 4-36 11-83 -68 0

* Offaly v Longford draw on 25th February - both points have been awarded to Longford

[Bord na Mona man]

Where it could go wrong, if Offaly lose to Roscommon.

Either:
1. Leitrim whip London by 16, meaning they can edge us out, even by losing to Monaghan

2. Clare draw or beat Longford, which leaves them both safe.

[Bogman]

Carlow beating Longford and Leitrim beating Roscommon. I don't think many people would have predicted that Double Result!

Am I right in saying there is a possible (though unlikely) scenario by which Offaly could sneak into Division 2.

Let's say (Big If) Leitrim don't hammer London by a huge margin and hence go into the final series of matches still below Offaly on points difference.

Then if Offaly somehow beat Roscommon (Big If) by 5 points more than Longford beat Clare (if Longford beat Clare) we would edge Longford on points difference for 2nd place.

On the other hand as Bord na Mona says there are scenarios which would dump us into Division 4 if we lose to Roscommon.

I think if we beat Roscommon we are in Division 3 at least as in that case only 5 teams can finish on 8 or better - Monaghan, Leitrim, Longford or Clare, Offaly, Roscommon. We would edge Roscommon on points difference (the Rossies are only +13 at the moment) so we are in the top 4 if we beat Roscommon.

I just hope these games don't clash with either the Hurling Relegation Playoff v Limerick or the Under 21 Leinster Final.

[Bord na Mona man]

Sorry my mistake Leitrim will be ahead of us next weekend, regardless of points difference. For argument's sake we'll award them a 10 point win over London in advance
The table will be:


P Diff Pts
1. Monaghan 6 +39 12
2. Leitrim 6 +16 8
3. Roscommon 6 +13 8
4. Longford 6 +25 6
5. Offaly 6 +22 6
6. Clare 6 +1 6
7. Carlow 6 -38 2
8. London 6 -78 0

If Offaly lose to Roscommon, the only hope of staying out of Division 4 is to hope that Longford lose to Clare by 4 points more than Offaly's losing margin!
[Scratch that]
Offaly can't afford to lose to Rossies at all!