www.uibhfhaili.com

There is an obscene amount of candidates running in Leix Offaly! I counted 15 or 16. It will take all day to fill out the voting slip, and a month to count the votes!

There could be more. At this stage I make it -
Cowen, Fleming & Moloney,
Corcoran, Quinn, Flanagan & Moran,
Whelan, Dumpleton & O'Brien,
Stanley,
Foley, Leahy, Fitzpatrick (who has a poster on every pole in West Offaly), Fanning,
Bracken, Bishop Cox!!!,
The Nigerian fella in Portlaoise,
A General Election in L/O wouldn't be the same without Joe McCormack,
last time there was some fella wearing a flat cap on my ballot paper - is he running again?

turk wrote:There is an obscene amount of candidates running in Leix Offaly! I counted 15 or 16. It will take all day to fill out the voting slip, and a month to count the votes!

Bishop Cox???? Is this the fella that will let you marry a horse if you want Didn't he also ordain Sinead O'Connor? With him, Bracken and Foley running the lamp posts are going to look more like an episode of Fr. Ted! I've no doubt there will be a flat cap or two on the list as well.

Hopefully Noel O'Gara decides to run!

The Offaly Express is reporting that Peter Ormond challenged Barry Cowen for the FF nomination and was outvoted 92 to 62 at the FF convention last week.

A relatively narrow margin given that Cowen Junior would have had the blessing of the Cowen machine, and there was virtually no campaign given that Cowen Senior only announced the day before that he would not be running.

I wonder if the Cumainn who are in North Tipperary for this election were eligible to vote at this? My own feeling is they weren't, and had about 8 cumainn holding 3 votes each not been excluded the result might have produced quite a turn-up for the books.
http://www.offalyexpress.ie/news/local/ ... _1_2393588

Today's (vague) prediction from Irish times political correspondant Deaglán de Breadún

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ire ... 28726.html



FF expected to keep 'Cowen seat' but Fine Gael has most of the momentum

DEAGLÁN de BRÉADÚN, Political Correspondent

CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: LAOIS OFFALY: BRIAN COWEN’S retirement from politics was bad news for Fianna Fáil here. The former party leader secured 19,102 first-preference votes in the last general election and his transfers ensured the election of two running mates.

The Taoiseach’s place on the ticket has been taken by his younger brother Barry, chairman of Offaly County Council. There is sympathy for the Taoiseach locally, so despite the party’s decline there is likely to be enough support to ensure there is a Cowen in the next Dáil.

Once the “Cowen seat” is filled, it starts to get problematic. Minister of State at the Department of Health, the unflappable John Moloney, and the party’s new spokesman on public sector reform, Seán Fleming, are both Laois-based. There is no possibility both can be re-elected and even taking one seat in Laois is a challenge for Fianna Fáil. Fleming is seen as the stronger candidate.

Last time out, the party had two contenders in Offaly as well. Brian Cowen’s running mate, Councillor John Foley, garnered 5,899 first preferences and came close to unseating Moloney.

With only one Soldier of Destiny in Offaly, Foley decided to run as an Independent, and will draw votes from Fianna Fáil.

The wind is at Fine Gael’s back. Laois-based Charlie Flanagan, son of Oliver J, is expected to top the poll. Fine Gael is running four candidates instead of three this time. It is an indication of the party’s new-found confidence that Flanagan has a Laois-based running-mate, Councillor John Moran, for the first time.

Fine Gael is seen as virtually certain to win a seat in Offaly, with either Councillor Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy or Councillor Liam Quinn replacing Olwyn Enright, who is not standing.

There was a bitter internal row over the Labour selection process. Party members walked out at the December convention because of HQ’s choice of former Leinster Express editor John Whelan despite four other nominations.

A recent poll put Whelan ahead of Sinn Féin councillor Brian Stanley. Both are Laois-based and Whelan is a first-time candidate. Stanley received 3,656 first-preference votes in 2007 and is seen as a strong contender.

Liam Dumpleton, a journalist on local radio who sought the Labour nomination, has left the party to stand as an Independent.

Independents and candidates from smaller parties include Portlaoise-based Rotimi Adebari from Nigeria, Ireland’s first black mayor.

Rebel cleric Michael Cox, who “ordained” singer Sinéad O’Connor as “Mother Bernadette Mary” in 1999, is standing on a platform that includes renegotiation of the EU-IMF loans.

Others include ex-Progressive Democrat councillor Eddie Fitzpatrick; Councillor John Leahy; John Bracken, who ran in 2007; and James Fanning, a member of a well-known Birr printing family.

LAOIS OFFALY: 5 SEATS

OUTGOING TDS: Brian Cowen, Taoiseach (FF), Olwyn Enright, (FG, retiring), Sean Fleming (FF). Charles Flanagan (FG), John Moloney, Minister of State for Disability Issues and Mental Health (FF)

CANDIDATES : FF - Barry Cowen, Sean Fleming, John Moloney; FG - Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy, Charlie Flanagan, John Moran, Liam Quinn; Lab - John Whelan; Green- Christopher Fettes ; SF - Brian Stanley; United Left Alliance - Ray Fitzpatrick; Independent/Others - Rotimi Adebari, John Boland, John Bracken, Michael Cox, Liam Dumpleton, James Fanning, Eddie Fitzpatrick, John Foley, John Leahy, Fergus McDonnell.



LOCAL ISSUES : Numbers. The Live Register in Tullamore for January is at its highest since the recession began. Repossession of homes because of inability to pay their mortgages. Shortage of outside investment to create jobs.

VERDICT : FF- 2; FG - 2; SF - 1.

turk wrote: The Taoiseach’s place on the ticket has been taken by his younger brother Barry, chairman of Offaly County Council. There is sympathy for the Taoiseach locally, so despite the party’s decline there is likely to be enough support to ensure there is a Cowen in the next Dáil.

Once the “Cowen seat” is filled, it starts to get problematic. Minister of State at the Department of Health, the unflappable John Moloney, and the party’s new spokesman on public sector reform, Seán Fleming, are both Laois-based. There is no possibility both can be re-elected and even taking one seat in Laois is a challenge for Fianna Fáil. Fleming is seen as the stronger candidate.

Maybe I'm not clued in as to the feeling on the ground, but I wouldn't be so sure Barry Cowen is a definite for the "Cowen" seat as they put it.
I could only second guess the various motives of voters, but there is hardly a whole stack of reasons to vote for him. Or is there?

Has there been any opinion polls done locally? Is John Leahy seen as a genuine contender?

I was talking to a canvasser for John Leahy yesterday and they seem pretty happy with how things are going, but then chances are that's what you'll hear.

It really is on a knife edge in terms of independents. If FG return roughly 80 seats and can get a government together with some like minded independents, of which somebody like Leahy would certainly be a possibility, then you definitely would like to have one of these in your constituency. If FG go into government with Labour and you end up as an independent sitting on the backbenches, then God help your area. It's a basic tenet of political life that areas that return an independent will be punished for doing so because the electorate are always likely to turn on them and it will be an easy seat to win back next time around. I certainly wouldn't like to be looking for anything in North Offaly if Foley is elected and Liam Quinn/John Whelan isn't but we end up with a FG/LAB government. You can rest assured that anything that could have come to that area would be diverted to heartlands of whichever government TD's were returned and that message would drummed home next time around.

The same but opposite message applies if North Offaly votes for Quinn and returns him, but if Leahy or Barry Cowen gets the votes west and south of Tullamore. The government will know what side their bread is buttered on.


As regards Barry Cowen's chances, I know this is seen as Cowen country and people here haven't turned on Brian the same way the rest of the country has, and I will also qualify what I'm about to say with the rider that I've never met the man - however he is (1) Using his surname to get elected (2) An auctioneer and (3) The beneficiary of a lot of handy jobs due to his connections.

A lot of people would say he's symbolic of everything that's wrong with the way things are run in Ireland. Time will tell if people vote for him anyway.

Lone Shark wrote:As regards Barry Cowen's chances, I know this is seen as Cowen country and people here haven't turned on Brian the same way the rest of the country has, and I will also qualify what I'm about to say with the rider that I've never met the man - however he is (1) Using his surname to get elected (2) An auctioneer and (3) The beneficiary of a lot of handy jobs due to his connections.

A lot of people would say he's symbolic of everything that's wrong with the way things are run in Ireland. Time will tell if people vote for him anyway.

Perfectly summed up! Unfortunately he's an absolute certainty to get in......what does that tell us about the voters?
Totally agree that unless your TD is in government then there is little if anything he or she will get done for the area.

Lone Shark wrote:As regards Barry Cowen's chances, I know this is seen as Cowen country and people here haven't turned on Brian the same way the rest of the country has, and I will also qualify what I'm about to say with the rider that I've never met the man - however he is (1) Using his surname to get elected (2) An auctioneer

A lot of people would say he's symbolic of everything that's wrong with the way things are run in Ireland. Time will tell if people vote for him anyway.

I don't believe a great number of people twig the connection between the national economic meltdown at the top level and how much of it actually percolated upwards from local level.

A backlash is fine, but I still think many people are doing it for superficial reasons. In 2 or 3 elections time, it will become clearer.

This is exactly what I'm concerned about. There are loads of people out there who will "punish" FF by giving their vote to an Independent or maybe Sinn Féin this time, without realising that facilitating an alternative government for what will be the toughest five years since the war and then letting FF back in for the 2016 celebrations is playing into their hands.

I'm not sure how to phrase this in a way that won't sound biased and it's actually not, in the sense that I'm not looking to canvass for any particular side or condidate here - but there has to be a fundamental change in what we look for from our politicians and a few years away from the top table won't be enough to convince FF, or the rest for that matter, that we actually want something different from our elected officials.

Lone Shark wrote:but there has to be a fundamental change in what we look for from our politicians and a few years away from the top table won't be enough to convince FF, or the rest for that matter, that we actually want something different from our elected officials.

FF will gladly sit out the next 5 years. Can you imagine the ammunitition they'll bring to the table for the 2016 elections? There will be very few positive things that the next government will be able say they have done over that 5 year period and the people may well be even wearier of the whole situation by then. It could be that the next 5 years will do far more damage to FG longterm than the current situation will do to FF. Its a funny ol world.

bracknaghboy wrote:

Lone Shark wrote:but there has to be a fundamental change in what we look for from our politicians and a few years away from the top table won't be enough to convince FF, or the rest for that matter, that we actually want something different from our elected officials.

FF will gladly sit out the next 5 years. Can you imagine the ammunitition they'll bring to the table for the 2016 elections? There will be very few positive things that the next government will be able say they have done over that 5 year period and the people may well be even wearier of the whole situation by then. It could be that the next 5 years will do far more damage to FG longterm than the current situation will do to FF. Its a funny ol world.

That's when the electorate will have to prove that it has grown up though. Can it see the difference between the decisions that the next governments chooses to make and the ones that they have no choice but to make. Brian Lenihan's sly little twist of leaving the next 10bn for the banks to be done by the next government due to "no mandate" shows how FF will be happy to leave plenty of landmines and booby traps after they go. People need to be able to see through all that.

The wild card here though is the possibility of a FG majority government. If it was a FG/Lab coalition, then FF would be able to claim itself as the only opposition in five years time. If it's a FG government with Labour leading the opposition, then that's a whole other ball game entirely. FF could very easy cease to be relevant in that environment and the 2016 election could become a two way battle with FF on the outside.

Or maybe Ned O'Keeffe will be right and there will have been an army coup by then.

http://www.votomatic.ie/Home.aspx

Turns out I'm a die hard Labour supporter??

In any case for those of you who cared or who claimed I was a die hard FF man I'll actually be voting FG in this election. Their policies on finance seem to make most sense, I was impressed with Michael Noonan when I heard him on Matt Cooper yesterday and even though he has the personality of a carrot and would have much rathered Richard Bruton as Taoiseach, Enda Kenny isn't doing much wrong. My preference is a FG\IND Government because it's always nice to have a group in there with the ability to pull down a government if we don't like how it's going

Despite the fact that I agree with a lot of what Labour are saying, the things I disagree with are big enough for me to say I can’t vote for them.

All local issues are irrelevant in this Election, there is one major issue - Debt Crisis - and this Election should basically be a Referendum on the approach to be taken.

In the absence of any real figures, clarity on interest rates, identity of bondholders etc, combined with a muddled world of spin from FF and their masters in Europe, this is my best stab at our current approximate position.

Known Sovereign Debt - 260 Billion
Annual Interest of National Debt at avg. of 5% - 13 Billion
Current Public Spending - 55 Billion
Current Government Revenue - 36 Billion

We are currently running at a deficit of 19 Billion and we expect that we can lump an addition 13 Billion onto this to pay the interest on our National Debt!!!!

We are heading for a Sovereign Default - a position we could have achieved over 2.5 years ago and now be well on the road to recovery, but we have kicked the can down the road for far too long and we now find ourselves in a cul de sac.

Arguing over a 5 billion hole in the FG plan or cuts in Education or Health are just irrelevant, probably as irrelevant as any Independent standing in this election. This issue requires immediate attention and we need parties to clearly outline their positions on this issue. In fairness SF have made their position very clear and whether they follow through or one adopts it as the opening position in a negotiated default its the best idea I've heard yet. However, our so called educated media describe SF as economic illiterates, whilst the best economists' in the land agree with the SF position. We failed to listen to Morgan Kelly and others in 2006 when they predicted the crash and now we are going to fail to listen to then again - we have learned nothing, I fear for the future!!!

Spain struggling in the Bond Markets today - watch this space, its either the demise of the Euro our the demise of Ireland