General Election 2024 - Offaly Constituency

[hamstrings]

Couldn't agree more with bracknagh boy, Anonymous1 it's not far right thinking it's just common sense.

[SearingDrive]

I think this topic should be closed as really this is a GAA forum and we struggle to get cohesive views on that at times.

Bit late now, but I think it should be taken down.

But to add a general comment, it amazes me how many get absoutely agitated over politics, or local organisations but would not lift a finger to get involved in grass roots in any organisation! But get loose on a keyboard.....!

Apologies, I was the one who initially set up this thread.
I was hoping to get a few reactions to the poll to see what way people are thinking, didn’t expect any of the above
Fully agree with your comments

I expect Carol Nolan, along with Tony Mc Cormack FF, and John Glendennen FG, will be elected for the Offaly Costituency.
Nationally it will be a Coalition, the days of single party government are long gone.

[Anonymous1]

I think this topic should be closed as really this is a GAA forum and we struggle to get cohesive views on that at times.

Bit late now, but I think it should be taken down.

But to add a general comment, it amazes me how many get absoutely agitated over politics, or local organisations but would not lift a finger to get involved in grass roots in any organisation! But get loose on a keyboard.....!

Apologies, I was the one who initially set up this thread.
I was hoping to get a few reactions to the poll to see what way people are thinking, didn’t expect any of the above
Fully agree with your comments

I expect Carol Nolan, along with Tony Mc Cormack FF, and John Glendennen FG, will be elected for the Offaly Costituency.
Nationally it will be a Coalition, the days of single party government are long gone.

I’ll await tonight’s opinion poll before making a final prediction but with a slide in the polls for FG and a bit of an uptick for SF here’s how I see it right now.

I think Tony McCormack is safe.

I think Carol Nolan is almost guaranteed too.

I think John Clendennen is still slightly favoured for the final seat but he can no longer be considered safe.

If SF were to increase much more in the polls, Clendennen could narrowly lose out.

Or indeed if the independents were to see another increase, Fitzpatrick could pip Clendennen.

It’s a dog-fight for that last seat.

[SearingDrive]

I think this topic should be closed as really this is a GAA forum and we struggle to get cohesive views on that at times.

Bit late now, but I think it should be taken down.

But to add a general comment, it amazes me how many get absoutely agitated over politics, or local organisations but would not lift a finger to get involved in grass roots in any organisation! But get loose on a keyboard.....!

It is a sweeping statement to make about posters, who express opposing views on political matters, would not take a role in local clubs, or community organisations.
This is primarily a sporting website , and we all take an interest in our county championships, and the progress of our inter county teams. A lot of contributors here, are very involved in their local club, and community activities.

The General Election will be held on Friday, and will determine the shape of the next government.

[frankthetank]

Carol Nolan polling excellently in the first count.

Clear leader.

[SearingDrive]

Carol Nolan polling excellently in the first count.

Clear leader.

Likely to top the poll. Aontu and PBP candidates not getting much traction with voters. Pippa Hackett not having a good day, like her party.

[Plain of the Herbs]

I'm just astonished there are over 900 people in Offaly who approve of those goddamn wind turbines.

Carol Nolan polling excellently in the first count.

Clear leader.

Likely to top the poll. Aontu and PBP candidates not getting much traction with voters. Pippa Hackett not having a good day, like her party.

[biffinbanner]

delighted for pippa.¬!!

[SearingDrive]

I'm just astonished there are over 900 people in Offaly who approve of those goddamn wind turbines.

Carol Nolan polling excellently in the first count.

Clear leader.

Likely to top the poll. Aontu and PBP candidates not getting much traction with voters. Pippa Hackett not having a good day, like her party.

All blown away by the voters.

[joe bloggs]

If the big two are on the lookout for a handful of independent TDs to form a government will Nolan put up her hand?

History has shown in scenarios like this TDs like Tony Gregory and Michael Lowry extract a good bounty for their constituency and at the same time even further strengthen their support. On the other hand, some who voted for her would see that as being a sell out.

The easy thing to do from her point of view is probably to stay on the opposition benches, but if she is brave she could be in a position to make a real difference for Offaly.

[frankthetank]

One for the political buffs….

After this general election will there be only 2 parishes in Ireland with 2 TD’s?

Kilgarvan and Kinnitty?

[Anonymous1]

The centre of Irish politics hasn’t just held, it has gained.

A resounding rejection of extremes on both the right and left.

On a side note, has there ever been a smaller village to have elected 2 TD’s in a 3 seater?

A banner day for Kinnitty with its 903 electors.

[Bord na Mona man]

Post Covid, almost all other Western governments have been punished at the polls for rampant inflation, cost of living crises, immigration and accommodation struggles.

Ireland is one of the few to return the government. The sitting coalition likely views their re-election as validation of their governance. The poor quality of the opposition is a big factor though. Sinn Fein have struggled with ‘senior hurling’. Two years ago they were a mile ahead in the polls. Scandal, poor leadership and some policy missteps really set them back.

[Superhans75]

Well lowest turnout since the border was drawn an incoming trump administration
That has Ireland in is sights
French economy bankrupt
Germany in massive decline
UK probably have an election next year again massive issues
And a surge of more refugees from the Ukraine next spring if there government
Fails ( which is likely)
Remember it's the civil service which advise the government not the other way around
Lots of former civil servants in high power jobs
Remember they are never elected
Going to an interesting 2025 let's enjoy the ride .

[Lone Shark]

If the big two are on the lookout for a handful of independent TDs to form a government will Nolan put up her hand?

History has shown in scenarios like this TDs like Tony Gregory and Michael Lowry extract a good bounty for their constituency and at the same time even further strengthen their support. On the other hand, some who voted for her would see that as being a sell out.

The easy thing to do from her point of view is probably to stay on the opposition benches, but if she is brave she could be in a position to make a real difference for Offaly.

This article today breaks down all the potential government partners from within the independent ranks, and while the only call that matters is the one that she gets from Micheál Martin/Simon Harris, and not the one from the Irish Times, this is still a bit worrying.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/202 ... r-support/

For those who can't see it due to the paywall, the article asks each independent what they would want to go into government. The majority reply, duly listing local projects they would want completed, Carol is one of only two that doesn't respond.

Now I could understand a politician like Brian Stanley, former SF front bench and just out of the party, not supporting a FF/FG government. I could understand, and would support, an outspoken anti-genocide candidate like Catherine Connolly not supporting the government unless they pull the plug on allowing the US military use Shannon airport, which they're not going to do. I could understand the government not asking Paul Gogarty (ex Green) since the Green brand is toxic now and that wouldn't do them any favours,.

Carol Nolan has no such ideological positions, as discussed on this thread. She should be actively jostling to get into position to use her status as an unattached independent in order to leverage her position and make a real impact in Offaly.

But as you say, it's a lot easier to just sit on the sidelines and oppose everything. Time will tell what her plan is, but the early signs aren't good.