General Election time

[Lone Shark]

http://www.votomatic.ie/Home.aspx

Turns out I'm a die hard Labour supporter??

Well feck ya anyway. I seem to somehow have ended up on the side of the Green Party. I really would have felt better not knowing that.



Club125 has hit the nail on the head to a considerable degree, and this view has been espoused elsewhere on the main Irish discussion forums. Anybody who tries to argue that this election is about jobs, education, health etc are losing sight of it - we are going broke, we have no means to pay our bills and we will default. If you ask any political party how they will handle default if it comes about, they all brush aside the question and say that it won't happen - but then if you asked them three years ago how they would handle things if the banks went bust, they'd have given you the same answer - thus there is no plan and when the day does happen, we need to all live in fear because there is a real danger that it will be more seat-of-pants governance when the time comes about.

The funny thing is that the bond markets seem to have accepted this, it's only the Irish politicians and the eurocrats who say that we can come through.

(By the way, anyone who hasn't read Michael Lewis' article on the country yet really should - http://www.vanityfair.com/business/feat ... table=true)

Ridiculous and all as it sounds, the only way out of defaulting on sovereign debt is to separate sovereign and bank debt, and default on the bank debt. That's essentially the SF policy and while they are quite out of kilter on a lot of other things, the bare logic behind that position is fairly solid. As Club125 said, they are the only ones actually making some attempt to address the issue, the other parties are just ignoring the elephant in the room.

After all, we have three years left to balance the budget anyway. May as well cut the banks loose and balance it now, and that way if the bond markets decide that they don't want to lend to us for a while, no harm done. One year of balanced budget and they'll be falling over themselves to lend into us again.

All in all, there are a load of questions that I'd love to have answered - but I should point out here that I sent a list of such questions to every known candidate standing in Laois Offaly for this election. I even toned it down a bit to try and encourage a response - not one candidate bothered themselves to reply. Very disappointing.

[Bord na Mona man]

SF targeting 'jewel in FF's crown'

Saturday February 19 2011

IN every general election, there are individual results that stick in the memory for encapsulating the moment.

Fine Gael's Lucinda Creighton taking out PD leader Michael McDowell in 2007 epitomised the rejuvenation of one party and the demise of another.

If Sinn Fein can win a seat at Fianna Fail's expense in Laois-Offaly, Taoiseach Brian Cowen's heartland, that result will reverberate across the system.

Sinn Fein candidate Brian Stanley describes the constituency as "the jewel in Fianna Fail's crown".

He knows it won't be easy to break the stranglehold Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have on the constituency, which has only been intermittently interrupted.

The 53-year-old reckons there'll be two Fine Gael and two Fianna Fail TDs elected, with the last seat up for grabs. "It would be significant. It has always been three-two," he says.

Labour's John Whelan should be the favourite to take a left-wing seat, but internal fighting has put the focus on Mr Stanley instead. "We are getting some Labour votes because of the mayhem in Labour," he said.

As the constituency straddles two counties, there are always doubts over the ability of single candidates attracting votes on both sides.

Although he has been building up his local base in Portlaoise for the past 12 years, Mr Stanley says this election is about national issues. "I have never seen an election where parochialism was as little a factor. It's clicked in with people, it's a bigger picture," he adds.


Criticism

"The big thing is they want to hear where you stand on national issues -- the economy, jobs, banking."

Mr Stanley defends Sinn Fein's economic policies from criticism on a national level, but says it only comes up on doorsteps from "hardcore Fianna Fail supporters".

"Outside of that, not at all. Charlie Flanagan's party is talking about burning bondholders, too. We have set out what we would do with a bank resolution scheme. People have really cottoned on."

Mr Stanley is married with two children and is also a grandfather. The former carer has been involved in the Republican movement for the past 30 years, including the hunger strike campaigns.

"I'm in the hunt and I am going to do my best at it. It is going to be a fight," he said. He's right on that front.

Fianna Fail's ticket of Barry Cowen, the Taoiseach's brother, along with junior minister John Moloney and Sean Fleming will take a seat and possibly a second. A third looks a bridge too far, but Fine Gael has a well-balanced line-up of four candidates: Charlie Flanagan, Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy, Liam Quinn and John Moran.

And watch out for Independent Eddie Fitzpatrick and former Fianna Fail candidate John Foley.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news ... 47376.html

[Bord na Mona man]

All local issues are irrelevant in this Election, there is one major issue - Debt Crisis - and this Election should basically be a Referendum on the approach to be taken.

In the absence of any real figures, clarity on interest rates, identity of bondholders etc, combined with a muddled world of spin from FF and their masters in Europe, this is my best stab at our current approximate position.

Known Sovereign Debt - 260 Billion
Annual Interest of National Debt at avg. of 5% - 13 Billion
Current Public Spending - 55 Billion
Current Government Revenue - 36 Billion

We are currently running at a deficit of 19 Billion and we expect that we can lump an addition 13 Billion onto this to pay the interest on our National Debt!!!!

We are heading for a Sovereign Default - a position we could have achieved over 2.5 years ago and now be well on the road to recovery, but we have kicked the can down the road for far too long and we now find ourselves in a cul de sac.

Arguing over a 5 billion hole in the FG plan or cuts in Education or Health are just irrelevant, probably as irrelevant as any Independent standing in this election. This issue requires immediate attention and we need parties to clearly outline their positions on this issue. In fairness SF have made their position very clear and whether they follow through or one adopts it as the opening position in a negotiated default its the best idea I've heard yet. However, our so called educated media describe SF as economic illiterates, whilst the best economists' in the land agree with the SF position. We failed to listen to Morgan Kelly and others in 2006 when they predicted the crash and now we are going to fail to listen to then again - we have learned nothing, I fear for the future!!!

Spain struggling in the Bond Markets today - watch this space, its either the demise of the Euro our the demise of Ireland

Another stark article today from the floppy haired one.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/colum ... 51802.html

No matter what way we slice it and dice it, the worst could be yet to come.

[club125]

Another good article here which explains the gravity of the situation

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/436234b8-3ebb ... z1Em0e6yBO

Looks like Leahy is going strong and could be a dark horse, I wonder has he an understanding of this pending crisis - I spoke to persons involved in other Independents Camps and they had virtually no understanding of this issue. They firmly believed that the cuts recently taken will pay for everything and we must get jobs and look after our own area (e.g. Save the Fire Station)....I honestly hope that the Fire Tenders in Daingean and Banagher spray cash in Billions!!

[Lone Shark]

Initial results suggesting that Charlie Flanagan, Brian Cowen and Marcella Corcoran Kennedy are over the line, with Brian Stanley in a very strong position. The final seat will probably come down to a race between Quinn, Moran and Fleming with Fleming the favourite and Quinn the outsider. A lot will depend on whether Foley's transfers go back to FF or stay in the area and go to Quinn I'd say.

[Bord na Mona man]

I must admit I never saw the huge increase in the Sinn Fein coming - Nearly double on last time.
I assume that in Offaly the 2007 Fianna Fail vote switched to Leahy and Foley, whereas in Leix a lot jumped to Stanley?

[Bord na Mona man]

Final results in:
http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/res ... ffaly.html

TDs elected:

Charles Flanagan - FG
Marcella Corcoran Kennedy - FG
Barry Cowen - FF
Sean Fleming - FF
Brian Stanley - SF

While Fianna Fail's vote was down 29.6%, Fine Gael only went up 6.4%. I think there was an element of guilt in the Fianna Fail deserter here.
While they couldn't justify voting for FF this time, they couldn't bring themselves to cross the divide to vote FG.

Boundary changes, candidate selection and the strength of Independents were obviously a factor too.

[Lone Shark]

I'm somewhat curious about the aftermath of this, particularly given how the country as a whole proved itself to be open to fresh faces. I'd be hugely skeptical of how much the likes of Mick Wallce, Shane Ross, Richard Boyd-Barrett, Joan Collins and Luke Flanagan can achieve while sitting on the opposition benches across from the largest government grouping in the history of the state, but it did prove that people were open minded and willing to think outside the box.

Yet in Laois/Offaly, we elected:

(1) A Long standing and front bench TD for the likely party of government - fair enough
(2) A Sinn Féin TD who made little or no inroads the last time, their party had very little profile in terms of councillors, and their economics was too radical for most people.
(3) The brother of our outgoing Taoiseach who for the life of me I can't fathom what unique skill he's supposed to have except a surname and a lifetime plodding along to little or no effect in local politics.
(4) A FG candidate who couldn't even get elected into the county council last time out, and who also failed at getting a Seanad seat when running for that too.
(5) A FFer who was a key part of the previous administration, who went on TV three times that I saw in the run up to the election and could come up with nothing other than attacking the opposition for things he guessed they were or weren't going to do.

I don't mean any disrespect and would welcome anyone batting for candidates 2-5 above to explain what they have that I missed, but I'm curious - who would people have voted for if they presented themselves? Aside from party lines, who is out there that didn't stand and would have been welcome? I appreciate what John Leahy tried to do, but when I asked a canvasser for him what he would be able to offer against a government with over 100 TDS, as was always long odds on, I got a spiel about how much of a hard worker he is.

He may be and that's all very well, but the absence of an endgame, a plan of any sort struck me as disappointing. I don't know much about Liam Quinn, but North Offaly haven't had a TD in a long time and Quinn was the perfect candidate for that area on paper - the fact that he came so far short suggests to me that he must have really made a mess of his campaign.

So who would have been the candidates that could have energised our area? Ray Walshe, Brendan Ward? Ronan Scully, Paul Bell, Miriam O'Callaghan? I'm throwing out names at random here but I really don't know myself. Any suggestions, or did the fruits of Brian Cowen's patronage make us all soft?

[The Magpie]

You're clearly a hard man to please though LS

I'd say when the candidates saw your list of questions coming through the door, they decided there was easier ways of getting a vote!

If you're:

hugely skeptical of how much the likes of Mick Wallce, Shane Ross, Richard Boyd-Barrett, Joan Collins and Luke Flanagan can achieve while sitting on the opposition benches across from the largest government grouping in the history of the state

What could a prospective candidate (other than FG or Labour) have possibly told you that would've been convincing? And, honestly, I'd like you to answer that.

The (wished-for) FG/Labour majority will be excessively strong - not necessarily a good thing. What strategy will any individual or small party have to emerge from this shadow?

Also, it's pointless complaining about the people that were elected, if you can't choose others from the 20-odd (that ran), who would be an improvement. I know you've named others (not quite sure what the selection criteria was), but I'd be interested to understand why Ronan Scully could offer more as a politician than Barry Cowen.

Incidentally, I'll support or defend neither here (since I know and like both), but am keen to understand your line of thinking.

[Lone Shark]

What could a prospective candidate (other than FG or Labour) have possibly told you that would've been convincing? And, honestly, I'd like you to answer that.

Honest answer, I'd like them to say that they would have a clear idea of what sort of actions they want to see the state take, to give an inclination of the type of other candidates that they would be likely to form a technical group with, and then to say that they would give a commitment of support to a government going along those lines but to try and extract a position on a particular Dáil committee where they could have a degrree of influence in an area where they would be technically strong.

Everyone doing a job interview gets asked what will you do in the first three months. It's the same thing here. To be honest I'd have been happy with any plan, be it left wing or right wing - it was the absence of a plan, a sense of "shur we'll see if we can get elected first and take it from there" that disappointed me.

The (wished-for) FG/Labour majority will be excessively strong - not necessarily a good thing. What strategy will any individual or small party have to emerge from this shadow?

Note that I never said wished for. I did say likely, everyone knew that. Surely it makes sense to have a plan for the most likely scenario, whatever about plan B for less-anticipated situations? My own gut feeling would be that with a monstrous government and a discredited leading opposition party, now is a great time to punch above your weight, if you can work the system enough to do so.

Also, it's pointless complaining about the people that were elected, if you can't choose others from the 20-odd (that ran), who would be an improvement. I know you've named others (not quite sure what the selection criteria was), but I'd be interested to understand why Ronan Scully could offer more as a politician than Barry Cowen.
Incidentally, I'll support or defend neither here (since I know and like both), but am keen to understand your line of thinking.

My selection criteria was the first few high profile names that came to my head. They weren't really suggestions as much as prompts for people to come up with their own. I've never met Ronan Scully or Ray Walshe so they could be brilliant people or not, I have no idea. In the GAA, two of the most impressive people that I've met have been Brendan Ward and Miriam O'Callaghan, in the sense of combining a real willingness to represent their people while at the same time having an honesty and integrity and a sense of right and wrong built into that.

Equally I've never met Barry Cowen, I merely believe that on paper he was an atrocious candidate. He seemed to be representative of everything that was wrong with the FF administration and neither in my time in the Indo or by Google search did I come across him ever making a stand for anything. I honestly don't know what he stands for beyond keeping it in the family. (This is yet another invitation to anyone to stand up for him - I'm really hoping someone will!)


I should note here also that I'm not saying that others wouldn't have been an improvement. I'm saying that I only had the chance to talk to one canvasser, and that was at a hurling match. I don't know Eddie Fitzpatrick, John Moran, James Fanning or Liam Dumpleton from Adam. They could have been great. I emailed every candidate and got zero answers - not one, independent and party politicians alike. Basically everyone seemed to want me to vote on the strength of pamphlets and posters.

[turk]

As Dunphy said to Bill once when Bill said Kevin Kilbane deserved credit for his hard work in the first half, Dunphy replied
"Washing machines work hard!"

Here are some things I think.

I think John Foley running messed up Quinn's chances and the vote in North Offaly was split. As soon as Foley announced he was running, Quinn was finished. Equally, Leahy getting 5000 or so first preference votes was a great achievement, but I think as he said himself, there were too many independents running for any to have a real chance in the end.

I also think any of the TDs that got in might do a great job. However I am not sure specifically what doing a great job as a TD might be. Some TDs raise questions in the Dáil and sit on committees. Some involve themselves in constituency work. Who is to say which is right or best but the voters. Did Charles Flanagan do great or good things in the Dáil between 2007 and 2011? I don't know. Did he do great or good things for his constituents? I don't know. SImilarly for Fleming.

I think a lot of people in this election voted nationally for FG because it was a case of "Let them get in and have a go at it" or "I think they're going to win so I might as well vote for them".
I think a lot of people voted for Labour because "I don't fancy that FG crowd in at it on their own."
I think a lot of people voted for FF because their Dads and Granddads voted for them!

I think that policies are good ideas but I would speculate only a minority of people bothered to read them. In the end the election winners get in, and say, the policies were a good idea, but let's just play it by ear from here.

Best of luck to all the TDs in the Dáil - they will need it. If they're not lucky they're well paid for it anyways

[The Biff]

Since I dont live or vote in Laois-Offaly any more, feel free to disregard my opinion (as I reckon many normally do, even on Sporting matters).

Anyway, having visited around Daingean a few times during the campaign, I know for a fact that the Fire-Stations Closure issue cost Liam Quinn a huge amount of votes. I cant remember any local political issue that lead to such a vocal, well organised and very public campaign than that Fire-Stations saga. It generated a lot of fervour in the three towns and neighbourhoods concerned. When the vote was done, all of those people knew who voted Yea and Nay, and I know of quite a few that specifically were NOT going to vote for Quinn because he voted for the Closure. Some of those purposefully switched to Foley because he voted against the Closure. It's probably an excellent example of the maxim: All Politics are local.

Aside from all that, I think all of those Independents and fringe Parties now elected can forget about achieving anything during the next 5 years. The FG+Labour combo have so many of their own back-benchers to keep happy and so little cash to spend - the Independents will have absolutely no influence to bear.

Last point - I feel some sense of shame that a sizable portion of my Home County managed to stick their heads in the sand and voted in a classic FF dodo, just like old times. If he had any self-respect at all, Barry Cowen should have been too embarrassed to consider running in the first place. FF should have been too embarrassed to choose him as a candidate. My late father often said that if FF put up a Dogs Ar$e on a ballot paper and asked people to vote for it, then there were plenty of people who would do so. More than at any time in the past, I now think he was right. Why were the voters in Laois-Offaly so out of step with the rest of the country in electing two FF candidates? Only Talkin-thru-Mehole Martin matched that achievement, but then Cork folk have always been a breed apart.

[bazza]

What decent Fine Gael candidate were people meant to vote for in North Offaly? I don't know about ye but I'm not going to vote for some young inexperienced candidate like Quinn who will be pushed to the back and get no say in anything worthwhile. Whether you like it or not politics is local. Look at Tullamore and Cowen over the last ten years for example.. New hospital, by-pass, new town park, new secondary school, redeveloped GAA stadium, new civic offices, new primary school, etc. Am I going to vote for some Fine Gael lad over in Portlaoise? Afraid not. Fair enough, they might try and sort out the country (which is a no-hoper anyway), but do you think he cares what's going on in Offaly?

Labour have the same problems. Am I the only one which thinks it's a shocking indictment that the party can't put forward ONE credible candidate in the constitutency when they have their best chance since 1992 of winning a seat?

[bracknaghboy]

Last point - I feel some sense of shame that a sizable portion of my Home County managed to stick their heads in the sand and voted in a classic FF dodo, just like old times. If he had any self-respect at all, Barry Cowen should have been too embarrassed to consider running in the first place. FF should have been too embarrassed to choose him as a candidate. My late father often said that if FF put up a Dogs Ar$e on a ballot paper and asked people to vote for it, then there were plenty of people who would do so. More than at any time in the past, I now think he was right. Why were the voters in Laois-Offaly so out of step with the rest of the country in electing two FF candidates?

You're spot on with all of this Biff.