Division 3 survival topic

[Bord na Mona man]

The before the last rounds stands as:
Allianz GAA Football National League Roinn 3 Table

Team Pld W D L Diff Points
Tipperary 6 5 0 1 15 10
Down 6 4 0 2 20 8
Cavan 6 3 0 3 0 6
Ros 6 3 0 3 -1 6
Limerick 6 3 0 3 -8 6
Offaly 6 2 1 3 -21 5
Louth 6 2 0 4 8 4
Longford 6 1 1 4 -13 3

Allianz GAA Football National League Roinn 3
Sun 12th April
Round 7: Roscommon V Down
Round 7: Louth V Cavan
Round 7: Tipperary V Longford
Round 7: Offaly V Limerick

If Louth and Longford lose, Offaly are safe regardless.
If Offaly lose and Louth at least draw, or Longford win, then Offaly are relegated.

What are the odds of:
1) Offaly - winning and securing D3 status
2) Offaly losing - but Longford and Louth losing too - securing D3 status
3) Offaly losing and getting relegated

[Georgio1]

I dont know much about Limerick except they are well behind where they were 3 years ago. But so are we. Limerick have performed reasonably well against the bigger teams in the group. I suppose we were always going to struggle in this group after the way our early preperation went. Roscommon were ahead of us in preparation and thats why they hammered us. Tipp was a bitter disappointment, but they have shown that they are a decent side. Down was always a game where I felt we would struggle big time, but being in the game early into the second half and fading so badly is a bad sign.
We need a big performance against Limerick now. Aside from going down (probably) if we lose, imagine trying to build for the championship on the back of relegation to Div 4? Right now I'd settle for a win next Sunday, what happens, happens in the championship. We need to stay up, keep our manager, and build for next year. If we can stay up, I would say the pressure is off and they can fully focus on the championship.
Chances?
I would say chances of both Louth and Longford losing are good.
Us winning, good enough if we get stuck in, and get a good start.
Surely next Sunday is the day to get out and support our lads and ensure we stay up, however a lot of club games on Sunday too.

[doobane man]

Offaly footballers are not in action on Sunday. The final round of games is on Easter Sunday.
It is almost impossible to predict results in this division:
Allianz GAA Football National League Roinn 3
Sun 1st February
Roscommon 0-16 Offaly 0-7
Longford 3-6 Cavan 0-12
Louth 1-14 Limerick 0-6
Tipperary 1-9 Down 0-18
________________________________________
Sat 14th February
Round 2: Limerick 0-14 Roscommon 1-10
Round 2: Down 1-13 Louth 1-12
________________________________________
Sun 15th February
Round 2: Cavan 0-11 Tipperary 0-13
Round 2: Offaly 0-11 Longford 0-11
________________________________________
Sat 7th March
Round 3: Down 0-10 Cavan 0-12
________________________________________
Sun 8th March
Round 3: Offaly 2-8 Louth 1-10
Round 3: Limerick 1-10 Tipperary 1-11
Round 3: Roscommon 1-12 Longford 0-13
________________________________________
Sat 14th March
Round 4: Cavan 0-10 Limerick 0-9
________________________________________
Sun 15th March
Round 4: Tipperary 1-16 Offaly 1-8
Round 4: Louth 0-10 Roscommon 0-13
Round 4: Longford 0-8 Down 0-13
________________________________________
Sun 22nd March
Round 5: Offaly 1-16 Cavan 0-13
Round 5: Louth 0-18 Longford 0-12
Round 5: Roscommon 1-10 Tipperary 2-13
Round 5: Limerick 2-9 Down 1-11
________________________________________
Sat 28th March
Round 6: Longford 0-7 Limerick 0-10
Round 6: Down 2-15 Offaly 1-7
________________________________________
Sun 29th March
Round 6: Tipperary 0-18 Louth 1-11
Round 6: Cavan 0-14 Roscommon 0-6
The only consistency above is the inconsistency in results but if pushed one might opt for the following:
Round 7: Roscommon V Down
venue:Dr Hyde Park, time:2 30 pm, (Ref:David Coldrick)
Round 7: Louth V Cavan
venue:Drogheda, time:2 30 pm, (Ref:TBC)
Round 7: Tipperary V Longford
venue:Thurles, time:2 30 pm, (Ref:Michael Collins)
which means that to survive we need to beat Limerick. If we perform as against Cavan we might prevail. Anything less its back to London and Kilkenny!

[Lone Shark]

The final round is not until the 12th of April, so the players now have a couple of weeks to iron out the considerable amount of bugs from last Saturday and to get things right for a hugely important game.

My gut feeling is that in a home game against Limerick, all other things being equal, Offaly are ever so marginal favourites to win. I would assess it at something along the lines of:

Offaly Win 47%
Draw 11%
Limerick win 42%

Now if we break that down further, for Offaly to draw and go down, Louth also have to beat Cavan - which, with Cavan having very little to play for, is probably a 60% chance at least - so the 11% can be broken down into 6.5% relegation and 4.5% safety.

Now for the 42% that we lose: Firstly, if we lose and Louth get a result of any kind, we're down - so if they're 60% to win, they're probably 69% to get a result of any kind - which gives us 13% approximately of still being alive and 29% relegation. Of that 13%, we also need Tipperary to deny Longford a result - which on current form, even allowing for it being a dead rubber for Tipp, is probably at least a 65% shot. I'd struggle to back Longford for that game at anything shorter than 7/4. That makes it roughly 8.5% chance of survival.

So our total percentage chances are:

Stay up by way of winning 47%
Stay up with a draw 4.5%
Stay up with a loss 8.5%
Total 60%

Relegated after a win 0%
Relegated after a draw 6.5%
Relegated after a loss 33.5%
Total 40%.

It's not exactly scientific projections, but I'd say it's a reasonable projection of where we stand.

[Bord na Mona man]

Another consequence of Offaly's no show against Roscommon is that it gives the Rossies a superior points difference to Limerick, meaning Limerick still have to go for the win to be 100% sure of staying up.

Tipp are on a good run and I'd expect them to finish out with a win against Longford.
A more successful county than Tipp in the same position would probably take it easy on the last day.
However I'd say there is some buzz in the Tipp camp at the moment, so they'll want to keep up winning ways.

Louth have Cavan at home though. Cavan, like Limerick have not much to play for. I have a feeling Louth will get something here. Louth have probably played better than other teams above them, but didn't get the right results.

[bracknaghboy]

After the Rossie match I didn't think we'd even have this chance. We are not that badly off when you consider its in our own hands......what more could we ask for at this stage we have one home game to win and we are safe......given that our home form is good in the league it should in theory be to our advantage. Remember if Limerick lose and Louth win then Limerick are gone so these boys will be fighting for their existence as well. This should be a championship intensity match and with hopefully a big crowd. You could argue that this game is more important to both countites than the championship. Limerick are not great but are gritty and would be likely to dominate around the middle.......this has been a trademark of theirs for years.

[St. Catch]

The only games I've attended so far this year were the football in Newry last weekend and the hurling in Wexford yesterday. In the interests of Offaly football I should probably steer clear of O'Connor Park on Easter Sunday

[Bord na Mona man]

In the interests of Offaly football I should probably steer clear of O'Connor Park on Easter Sunday

On Easter Sunday Offaly football will come back from the dead...like yer man E.T!

[Georgio1]

Hopefully St Catch wont be replaced in OConnor park by St Jude next Sunday!