Dublin Match Preview

[Lone Shark]

It's a long time since I've been this pessimistic about a match that we supposedly have a chance in. Hopefully some optimists out there will convince me as to the error of my ways ......

This week, you’re likely to read a lot of material calling into question the Dubs, their stomach for a hard battle, and contrasting this current batch of metropolitans with their counterparts that had such ding dong battles with Offaly in the late seventies and early eighties. Reading all this stuff, it could be very easy get swept away on a tide of optimism going into next weekend. If you start thinking like that, it could be worth bearing a few things in mind.

Next Sunday will be the third time in a little over a year that Offaly will have come head to head with Dublin in a competitive fixture. The first time was in last year’s NFL, when Dublin held Offaly scoreless for 55 minutes before having their winning margin reduced by a spate of late goals. Later that year in Croke Park Dublin emerged victorious by nine points in a game where Offaly’s brave resistance was eventually worn down and the team succumbed to the more powerful and superior team on the day.

Since then, Offaly’s 2006 championship petered out with the team’s worst performance in living memory against their southern neighbours, the 2007 NFL was an unmitigated disaster with a mere three wins - all garnered against sides who would be in the bottom five in the country - and in the championship the team succeeded in breaking in sweat against Carlow, but more because of the heat than any great need to dig deep to fob off the challenge of the Barrowsiders. In contrast, the Dubs came within one point of reaching an All Ireland final, finished in mid table in the toughest league division in the country and just polished off their biggest rivals in a fiercely competitive 140 minutes of football.

All this may seem like stating the obvious, but it bears repeating this week. Dublin remain clear third favourites behind Tyrone and Kerry in the race for the All Ireland, but to listen to some commentators across the national media who love nothing more than pointing out the reasons why this current Dublin team will not lift the Sam Maguire. No team gets analysed or criticised as intensely as Dublin and it would be very easy to fall into the trap of thinking that this Dublin team is on the brink of collapsing mentally and putting all these supposed weaknesses on display in a big Leinster or All Ireland Championship match, possibly even this weekend’s match.

The truth is that Dublin do have issues they need to resolve to maximise their potential, but even if one is to make the assumption that they have not improved in the last twelve months (a big assumption factoring in how much of a boost their win last Sunday will have given the team) it’s very difficult to see Offaly having improved by nine points over the same period as is necessary to get a result. There are a couple of areas that optimists will be looking towards, but it’s all too easy to dispel the optimism with a quick counterpoint in each case. PJ Ward appears to have added a new threat in the full forward line, but even if we presume that his true form is what we saw against Carlow rather than what we saw in the NFL, his good form is compensated for by the current slump being experienced by last summer’s scoring sensation, Thomas Deehan. Niall Smith’s championship debut at midfield was encouraging, but expecting him to thrive against a seasoned campaigner like Ciarán Whelan is another matter entirely. Scott Brady’s reversion to the number six jersey gave the county a much better presence in the crucial centre back position, but next Sunday he will be faced with either Shane Ryan, Alan Brogan or possibly Jason Sherlock – each of which would test the Clara man’s mobility a lot more than his unquestioned strength or physique.

The last bastion for the optimism would be to join in the chorus of national commentators who like finding fault with Dublin and picking on aspects such as their inexperienced full back (the guy who saw off Joe Sheridan last Sunday) their tendency to go long periods without scoring (Carlow went huge periods without scoring, they still finished up with 3-7, almost double Offaly’s tally against the Dubs last year) or their lack of a proven blue chip forward who’ll score three points or more from play even on a bad day (Keaney, Brogan, Quinn, Sherlock and now Vaughan – that’s a lot of potentially heavy scorers to compensate for whoever misfires)

As if that wasn’t enough, now here’s one for the conspiracy theorists among you – do not underestimate how much of a problem it will cause the GAA if Offaly were to upset the odds and eliminate Dublin from the Leinster Championship next Sunday. Not for the financial reasons that many would presume, but in terms of the new qualifier structure.

When creating the new system, it was more or less presumed that the 8 division four teams would “behave” and trot meekly into the Tommy Murphy like they were supposed to. The backdoor schedule, with rounds fixed for the 7th, 14th and 21st of July with the first of the quarter finals on the 28th/29th July is very intense, so it goes without saying that in that environment an extra qualifier game next weekend to reduce the pot from 17 to 16 teams would not be welcome. Either team drawn in that fixture would have to play and win on five consecutive weekends to reach the All Ireland semi finals, a huge ask of any team and grossly unfair on the two teams involved. It would lead to widespread accusations of favouritism, since if Dublin and/or the losers of Derry vs Monaghan or Galway vs Leitrim were drawn into this fixture they could say that they only had a week break, something that was supposed to be eliminated under the new structure. If any of these teams were not drawn into the fixture, all others would question a rigged draw in order to avoid this controversy – the GAA would be in a no win situation. In that environment, would it be so difficult to understand the 50/50 calls going Dublin’s way?…..

A top class opposition with 70,000 fans cheering them on, a dearth of proper preparatory games and an establishment that would be greatly convenienced by Offaly’s elimination into the pointless farce that is the Tommy Murphy Cup. The stage is set lads. Good luck.

[azoffaly]

LS, I'd love to disagree with you strongly, but in my heart of hearts I cannot see us beating the Dubs next weekend either. However, there are a couple of things that bear mentioning, just to top up the auld blind optimism. I mentioned them on the GAA Board yesterday, so I'll cut and paste

1) Offaly may be better this year than last. Despite getting relegated to the new Div 4, ( a disgrace by the way) the Offaly team as set out against Carlow looked a good bit better balanced than last year's model. The Full back line is a serious doubt in my mind, but the Half Backs and Half forwards are better, or at least better on paper. Alan McNamee has another fielder at midfield with him, albeit a young and raw one, but that may give him a chance of some parity in that sector. The Full Forward line, with a pure Full Forward type in PJ Ward, also looked fairly solid against bad opposition, so it will be interesting to see if Nialler, Ward and Thommo will do the business against an improving Dublin full back line.

2) Offaly were closer than people think in hindsight last year. Until Alan McNamee got sent off and the goal shortly afterwards, they were still within touching distance. It was always on the cards that the Dubs would pull away, but a few bad Offaly wides when Dublin were vulnerable let them off the hook, and the red card and goal sealed the deal.

3) Dublin will give you a chance. Whether it is mental attitude, brittleness or whatever, Dublin always seem to give a sucker an even break. They find it very hard to really kill teams off, and you nearly always have a chance to claw them back, and maybe even go ahead. If you fail to get ahead of them, they then seem to let out a collective sigh of relief, and kick on to beat you going away, but if you do go ahead, they can be beaten. If Brian Farrell hadn't kicked the equalising chance badly wide yesterday, I don't think Dublin would have pulled away. It was like a weight off their shoulders when he did so.

4) Freetaking. Dublin have perfectly competent freetakers, such as Mossy Quinn, Vaughan and Keaney, but they are notoriously hot and cold, perhaps excepting Keaney. If both Quinn and Vaughan have off days, it's a big boost for the opposition.

All in all Dublin, on paper, should be too good for Offaly. Their movement and fitness when in full flow is a joy to behold, and if they keep it up for 70 minutes, Offaly would be lucky to keep it to single digits. However..... The devil is in the detail. It's a big IF for Dublin to keep it up for 70, and (here comes another one) IF Offaly keep in touch, within 2,3 or 4 points, and take the chances that will come their way at that stage in the second half, about 55 -65 minutes when the Dubs tend to hit a speed wobble, Offaly can do it.

We travel more in hope than expectaion. And we know it will take a poor enough Dublin performance and a very good Offaly one, but we will go, and we will try. We are the Faithful.

Uibh Fhailí Abú

I am not a believer in this Dubs side, just as I wasn't last year, and was ultimately proven correct by Mayo. I accept that they are totally over exposed in the media, both positively and , as you say, negatively. That's not their fault, but they still have some wrinkles to iron out before they are genuine All Ireland winners in my mind. That said, the Meath games may have helped there.

IF Offaly can stop conceding goals and IF midfield/half back/half forward can break even or at least be competitive and IF Offaly take the chances that the Dubs WILL allow you, then we have a chance, but as I said above, Dublin will have to play poorly, and we will have to play very well.

That said, that very scenario has happened before for countless Offaly teams, so feck it, we'll turn up anyway

[Ron]

The thing that impressed me most the last day was the quality of ball into our forwards. Diagonal passing that has the potential to open up a defense and with players like Niall Mc and now Ward in there a good supply of ball in is crucial.
For that supply to be good we need to win our fair share in the middle and half back line and keep out goals, there was little or pressure when givein tghte pass the last day, that won't be the case on Sunday.
I can certainly see us scoring more than 9 ponts this year but it may not be enough.

Here's hoping!

[the bare biffo]

Unfortunately I can't disagree with a lot of what you say either LS, but I won't be handing back the tickets either. Last year we won three competitive games befor we met Dublin and a momentum and confidence had definitely been built up on the way. For players and supporters alike.

A solitary stroll against Carlow on the back of a woeful league and a horrendous goals against record has done nothing for players or supporters this year. I saw PJ Ward a couple of times in the league and I'm afraid both he and maybe Smith were wearing the emperror's new clothes against Carlow and will be exposed by quality opposition.

But sure I've spent many a depressing afternoon in Croker over the years and the thing is, you just never know when a repeat of the 1980 LHF is about to materialise. Straws......grasping, I know.

I just wish Dublin would go and win an All Ireland and get it out of everyones system.

[Sydthebeat]

while Dublin are the most analyzed team in the country, they are also the most hyped... so its my hope that next Sunday they actually start to believe their own hype........

Dublin supporters believe all they have to do next Sunday is turn up, i hope that belief rubs off on the team..... we need a complacent lackadaisical Dublin to turn out...

i do believe we have the capacity to out score them but we need their own in-build doubts to come through... lets be honest, every one of those dublin players are under tremendous pressure... way more so than our lads.. lets hope they crack....

[DD]

I just wish Dublin would go and win an All Ireland and get it out of everyones system.

Jasus No. I hope that they never win another...ever ever..

[Hocker]

I think the game will be won or lost in midfield and our half back line.. Not overly pessimistic going into this one as opposed to last years Leinster final. Our full forward line has the potential to do a serious amount of damage, if, and thats a big 'IF' they get the right service.. PJ Ward is an excellent addition this year whereas last year we had a two pronged attack (Niall & Tommo), It's now 3 with Niall probably being the one asked to drop back deep this year.
Cant imagine there'll be more than 3 or 4 points in it this time. Dublin to just about shade it though.
Prediction: Dublin 1-17 Offaly 1-14

[Kevin]

With all due respect to the always detailed and well thought through analysis found here and those who take the time to post it - we will win.

There is one advantage we have that Dublin can't do anything about. They had to focus on Meath and are just getting around to thinking about us now. As far as I am concerned and I really, really hope that the players believe that there is not a better chance to beat Dublin than right now. When Dublin look to take the game away with 20 minutes to go they won't find the 5th gear. Why would they need it against some hillbillies from Division 4 tailor made to offer up meak resistance after a tiring pair of games. We will be in this one all the way. I'd be surprised if it was any other way.

To any players looking on here - your time has come. The setup is perfect. Sunday is a great day for an ambush!

COME ON OFFALY!!!!!!!!

[Muck Savage]

Everyone seems to think if Offaly can be within 2-4 pts in the last 10 mins we'll take them. I don't see that. I really can't see our fitness winning it in the last 10 mins. To be honest, the last few years Offaly teams have not been at the level of fitness they need to be at, Dublin will swallow them whole I fear in this front.
If Offaly are to win, goals are key. They need three or four. If they can get a couple early on and not concede any then I'd be hopeful that the Dub supporters would get on the Dub players and to their heads. They're a typical towney team as we'd call it in the sticks, all great if things are going well but if pressure is put on them early on and held for 10 mins into the second half where they are trailing they could struggle.
first 10 mins are very important, same as the 10 mins either side of half time. If we can not let them score goals or a rally of points in this 20 mins we'll be there or there abouts.

[arbarg]

To any players looking on here - your time has come. The setup is perfect. Sunday is a great day for an ambush!

COME ON OFFALY!!!!!!!!

[Lone Shark]

Nah, it hasn't worked. I'm as pessimistic as ever.

PJ Ward is an excellent addition this year whereas last year we had a two pronged attack (Niall & Tommo)

PJ Ward had a whole league campaign to stake his claim and it didn't happen. He got a run against Carlow for whatever reason, and he filled his boots against an appalling defense - and still found the time to miss two absolute howlers from 20 yards out. The kind of chances he took against Carlow you just don't get against Dublin. The only good thing about all the hype about him is that hopefully it might make the Dubs forget who our one good forward actually is. As for last year we had a two pronged attack - well this year one of those prongs is very much blunted. An early score and he might find his confidence, but right now Tommo is not firing on all cylinders at all.

Dublin supporters believe all they have to do next Sunday is turn up, i hope that belief rubs off on the team..... we need a complacent lackadaisical Dublin to turn out...

i do believe we have the capacity to out score them but we need their own in-build doubts to come through... lets be honest, every one of those dublin players are under tremendous pressure... way more so than our lads.. lets hope they crack....

I don't mean to be facetious, but what you're saying there is that we need the dubs to be both lackadaisical and feeling huge pressure? I'm not sure how that works. Either way, the Dubs have a lot of high class subs just itching to stake a claim for a spot. Darren Magee, Jason Sherlock, Coman Goggins, all big name players that didn't start last time out - that'll be more than enough to ensure lackadaisical doesn't happen.

For that supply to be good we need to win our fair share in the middle and half back line and keep out goals

Carlow - 3. Clare - 1. Roscommon - 4. Carlow again - 2. Longford - 3. Just some of the goal tallies we've conceded this year. And now it appears Ger Rafferty is out. I really don't see how we can hope to keep the goals out like that.


If I was able to get off work I'd be going too, but that doesn't change the fact that I'd be travelling with more or less the same sense of futility that I went to Portlaoise to watch the hurlers with. I can honestly say I've never been this pessimistic about our footballers chances.

[Hyper]

Same team named as v Carlow,not saying that will be the team that lines out as there are doubts about Tommo and Raff

[TheManFromFerbane]

If games were played on paper Offaly would have never won an All-Ireland. That's the beauty of sport. However for an upset to occur it requires the underdog to have been totally bet down for the last few years. Unfortunately I think this is going to be another one of those years.

However to rob a Munster rugby saying. "To the brave and the faithful nothing is impossible!"

[arbarg]

Ah come on LS,

Dare to dream....

[Bord na Mona man]

Ah come on LS,

Dare to dream....

Yes.
Toe the party line Lone Shark!