The Local and European Elections

A forum to air your views on Offaly GAA matters and beyond.
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.

FG
1
17%
FF
3
50%
SF
0
No votes
GP
0
No votes
SD
0
No votes
IDP
0
No votes
Renua Ireland
2
33%
An Independent
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 6

LooseCannon
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The Local and European Elections

Post by LooseCannon » Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:45 pm

Ok folks, we’re a month out from the Local and European elections. Since the forum can extend beyond the GAA, I said that I’d put this up, to see who you reckon will lose, hold or gain seats. Feel free to correct me if I’ve made an error in the lists. Candidate lists are compiled from adriankavanaghelections.org, which I must say is a fantastic website.
The posters are up, and to quote the Saw Doctors’ song, “the ball is in, the game is on”(To Win Just Once).
I created this for somewhat of a discussion on the locals, but don’t hesitate to comment on the European election as well. We’re pegged into Ireland South this time. A couple of candidates were in Offaly in the past few weeks, while I believe some will be in Offaly during the remainder of this week. Very important all the same, given Brexit and all.

FF: Fianna Fáil
FG: Fine Gael
SF: Sinn Féin
GP: Green Party
SD: Social Democrats


Edenderry LEA
FF
Pat Daly (Kilclonfert)
Cllr Eddie Fitzpatrick (Cloneyhurke, Portarlington)
Robert McDermott (Edenderry)
Christine Traynor (Edenderry)
*Cllr Noel Bourke is retiring.

FG
Cllr Noel Cribbin (Edenderry)
Cllr Liam Quinn (Rhode)

SF
Alan Davy (Rhode)


GP
Pippa Hackett (Geashill)

Independents
Cllr John Foley (Edenderry)
Fergus McDonnell (Edenderry)
Tullamore LEA
FF
Cllr Declan Harvey (Tullamore)
Cllr Tony McCormack (Tullamore)
Cllr Frank Moran (Clara)
Cllr Danny Owens (Killoughey(Blue Ball/Mount Bolus))

FG
Neil Feighery (Blue Ball)
Deirdre Fox (Durrow)
Bernard Westman (Tullamore)
*Cllr Tommy McKeigue is retiring
SF
Anne Marie Ennis (Tullamore)
*Cllr Brendan Killeavy is stepping down.

Independents
Seán O’Brien (Tullamore)
*Cllr Dervill Dolan is stepping down.
John Bracken (Ballycumber)
Renua Ireland
Brendan Murty Galvin (Tullamore, but I think he’s based in Mucklagh, not sure)

Irish Democratic Party
Ken Smollen (Tullamore)

Birr LEA
FF
Cllr Éamon Dooley (Ferbane)
Bernie Fanneran (Birr)
Alan Kenny (Banagher)
Cllr Peter Ormond (Shinrone)

FG
Cllr John Clendennen (Kinnitty)
Hughie Egan (Doon)
Marian Pilkington (Birr)

SF
Cllr. Sean Maher (Birr)

Independents
Cllr John Carroll (Crinkill)
Joe Wynne (Ferbane)
Habibul Mukhtiar (Birr)

SD
Clare Claffey (Banagher)

Renua Ireland
Cllr John Leahy (Kilcormac)
Monica Barnwell (Birr)


Lastly, I hope that this is allowed. I see that there was one in 2014, so why not, eh?
Last edited by LooseCannon on Fri May 10, 2019 2:48 pm, edited 3 times in total.
"The greatest one in a row in history."

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Lone Shark
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Re: The Local and European Elections

Post by Lone Shark » Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:54 pm

No problem at all with the idea of putting this up here, it's a matter of significant interest to people in the county, so of course it's relevant.

As someone living outside the county, it'd really be only my own electoral area that I'd have any kind of view on, but it definitely looks like it could be fascinating. In the west, there'd be a lot of time for John Leahy in terms of his service to the job, even if it's fair to say that Renua is a bit of a basket case of an organisation. He'll sweep the boards in Kilcormac and will take plenty of votes in other areas as well, to the point that he's certainly a safe seat and probably the clear front runner to top the poll again.

I don't know the first thing about Seán Maher but it's not unfair to say that Sinn Féin votes tend to be be far less "personal" than any others and it's impossible to see him falling short of the 1,500 or so votes that will be needed, I can see him getting in comfortably, somewhere around the middle of the pack. Equally, Peter Ormond has a good chunk of territory all his own, and as long as he stays in front of Bernie Fanneran, he'll pick up her transfers as well, so there's three seats filled. John Clendennen will be the front runner of the three Fine Gael candidates, and as such he's a lock as well.

After that, it gets interesting. History would suggest that there should be enough of a Fine Gael vote for them to take a second seat, but some of their candidate selection in the past has been strange, to say the least of it. I won't lie in that I was rather stunned to see Hughie Egan running, even allowing for the historic loyalty to FG built up by Connie Hanniffy in his part of the world, and if he polled strongly in his own parish alone, he could go a long way. Throw in any loyal party voters in places like Ferbane, Cloghan, Shannonbridge and even Banagher, and he could do well. Certainly he'll pick up a decent farming vote as well.

Marian Pilkington is very different in that she's town, she's from a business background, and she would have been seen as a far more likely candidate a couple of years ago. Birr will be a big battleground but she's well-thought of and will do okay too. If these two candidates transfer to each other at any decent rate, one of them will make it - but that's far from a given. My sneaking suspicion is that Marian Pilkington will pick up enough to get in, possibly edging out John Carroll, who might struggle to get the 1,000 first preferences that I'd say he'll need.

Then there's the seat currently held by Eamonn Dooley, and naturally as a Ferbane native I'd be keen to see him hold on to it. There's two key factors here - first is Joe Wynne's decision to run in this LEA rather than in Tullamore where he has lived for a good while, and to my knowledge still does - because he's from "genetic FF" stock and a lot of the votes he'd try to get are votes that would otherwise be Eamon's. Now my gut feeling is that Joe has absolute zero chance of election, but his run could go either way for Eamon Dooley. It'll hit Dooley's first preference tally certainly, but I'd be surprised if most of those votes don't go back home, so to speak - and it could hoover up a few people who come out to support Joe Wynne, but mightn't have bothered to vote otherwise, and again those votes would presumably go back to Eamon after.

Certainly it's hard to imagine FF with no councillor in West Offaly, and while I know absolutely nothing about Alan Kenny, that speaks volumes by itself. Admittedly there should be a lot of votes in Banagher for which he has no meaningful rival, but I still don't expect him to usurp Dooley.

The other factor is to go back to the whole Hughie Egan/Marian Pilkington situation. If Hughie goes out first out of those two, then his party loyal votes will go to Pilkington and Clendennen, but a decent share would go to Eamon Dooley as well, and that would see Eamonn over the line. If Hughie manages to stay in the race longer however, then that complicates matters in a big way, and could let John Carroll back in. But since I predicted a Marian Pilkington seat above, for consistency I'll suggest that Eamon Dooley will hold his.

In a nutshell, the completely uninformed, wildly speculative Lone Shark view is:

John Leahy (REN), Peter Ormond (FF), John Clendennen (FG), Sean Maher (SF) to be elected in that order. They will then be joined by EITHER Eamon Dooley (FF) and Marian Pilkington (FG) at 5 and 6 respectively, or John Carroll in 5th and Hughie Egan in 6th. My gut feeling is the former option of the two.
Kevin Egan. Signed out of respect for players and all involved with Offaly.

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Re: The Local and European Elections

Post by frankthetank » Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:01 pm

Renua will pick up a huge amount of the pro-ilfe voters so their vote could be surprisingly large.

LooseCannon
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Re: The Local and European Elections

Post by LooseCannon » Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:41 pm

frankthetank wrote:Renua will pick up a huge amount of the pro-ilfe voters so their vote could be surprisingly large.
Just on that, I doubt that they’ll get that many votes from pro-life people. Most FFers in my LEA would be pro-life anyway, as would their candidates. Similarly, but not as much with FG.

One FG candidate that I encountered recently reckons that Leahy will pick up less votes this time and that “people are copping on to him and his crowd”. He’s supposedly sticking his head in everywhere, especially for photos! So I’m told.

I think that Alan Kenny is originally from Banagher and was a prison officer for years. Is back living in Banagher for a few years. POTH or one of the Banaghers or Cloghans might know more, or indeed if what I’m told is true. FF did have a Banagher councillor up until five years ago, so it wouldn’t come as a surprise to me if they elected one on this occasion.

I’ve seen a bit of this, but have been told of more also. Apparently FG are putting up posters in their colleagues territory. Clendennen’s posters have been spotted in West Offaly, which should be Egan’s territory. That could yet come back to bite them.

That’s all I really have.
Ormond is a shoe-in. It’s as if no one would dare go against him. Not suggesting that …
Leahy.
Dooley.
Clendennen.
Maher.
Take your pick from Kenny, Egan Fanneran and Pilkington. Or indeed John Carroll, who could nick the SF vote.
That’s how I’d view it from talking to people. Then again, heck, what do I know?

One thing I will say is that posters should not be hung outside GAA grounds for two reasons. One: the GAA is supposed to be apolitical. Two: they can cause a fierce impediment to looking for oncoming traffic pulling out of a GAA pitch.

Also, what’s the story with the European Parliament Election?
I know that Malcolm Byrne of FF and Andrew Doyle of FG were in Offaly recently. From Wexford and Wicklow respectively.

We’d have candidates based a lot closer had we remained in Midlands North-West, with Portumna based Anne Rabbitte of FF running. Ming in Roscommon also. Feckin constituencies, eh?

It’s the same with the Dáil constituencies. Base it on the counties, with obviously Dublin and Cork split, possibly Galway and Tipp as well. Split LS-OY and CW-KK. And have all of Offaly, not a bit of Tipp here and a bit of area around Portarlington pegged into Kildare.
"The greatest one in a row in history."

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