new offaly constituency?

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new offaly constituency?

Postby suckindiesel » Thu Sep 24, 2015 9:58 pm

there is a general election coming soon, with LS/OY now split into two 3 seaters, with a little external added to each county.

I am struggling to work out the new Offaly constituency. Until a few years ago 2 for FF would have been a safe bet.......would I be right in guessing that Barry Cowen is a certain seat, and the other two seats could go to ff2, fg, an independent, or a sf?....can anyone give a non partisan call at this stage.

the laois constituency is a dead duck as all 3 sitting tds will be returned and the parties will be putting no focus or money on a predictable three seater.
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Re: new offaly constituency?

Postby SearingDrive » Fri Sep 25, 2015 10:40 am

suckindiesel wrote:there is a general election coming soon, with LS/OY now split into two 3 seaters, with a little external added to each county.

I am struggling to work out the new Offaly constituency. Until a few years ago 2 for FF would have been a safe bet.......would I be right in guessing that Barry Cowen is a certain seat, and the other two seats could go to ff2, fg, an independent, or a sf?....can anyone give a non partisan call at this stage.

the laois constituency is a dead duck as all 3 sitting tds will be returned and the parties will be putting no focus or money on a predictable three seater.

The old LS/OY 5 seater will cease to exist at the next general election, having endured since 1926. Offaly and North Tipperary is the new 3 seat constituency. I think it will be 1 each for FF and FG. The last seat is a contest between FF, SF, Renua, and other candidates. Barry Cowen and Marcela Corcoran Kennedy should be reflected for FF and FG respectively.
John Leahy, GAA coach will probably represent Renua, John Foley, former FF will stand in the Edenderry area, under the Shane Ross grouping, Carol Nolan is the SF candidate. Eddie Fitzpatrick is the second FF candidate in the Edenderry area, should be interesting battle with John Foley!
The above lineup may change between now and the election. It will be interesting to see how the Tipperary end will pan out.
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Re: new offaly constituency?

Postby Plain of the Herbs » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:21 pm

You’d imagine the new Offaly constituency will return one Fianna Fáil, one Fine Gael, with the other seat between John Leahy and Carol Nolan.

There’s quite an imbalance of candidates between east and west, and you’d think if the right candidate ran in South Offaly / North Tipperary that they’d stand a right good chance. I reckon there’s a half a quota in the North Tipperary area (which extends to the bridge at the meat factory on the way into Nenagh) and if O’Meara (Lowry team) from Lorrha was to run, he could claim the third seat.

Peter Ormond was ideally located geographically but didn't impress his party headquarters when he flip flopped about contesting his party’s convention. Of the independents, I suppose John Leahy is best placed to step into the 'hurling district'.

I’m surprised Fine Gael are running just a single candidate. I had expected Liam Quinn to run, and to take a seat. There are statistics somewhere on the internet that show there was a far greater movement of Fine Gael votes from Laois to Offaly and vice versa than there was of of Fianna Fáil votes (based on social class), so it will be interesting to see where such votes will go now. Remember Corcoran-Kennedy lost her seat on the County Council in the 2009 Local elections.

Also surprised Brendan Killeavy isn’t running for Sinn Féin, who I thought was lining up a seat. The speed with which Nolan stepped in once Killeavy’s withdrawal became common knowledge leaves on to presume that the party’s preference for blonds female candidates swung it. So, who’ll sway the Tullamore town vote in their direction? Will Killeavy’s vote hold firm along party lines? If it does, you’d say Nolan.

As with all elections under the single transferable vote system, transfers matter. FF & FG will hardly have more than a quota each, so they’ll each take a seat. Which of Nolan or Leahy will attract transfers from others? But the right candidate running in Tipperary could do well.

Incidentally, the 2011 GE produced the following in the old Laois Offaly constituency: FG 34%, FF 27%, SF 11%, Lab 8%, Others 20%.
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Re: new offaly constituency?

Postby joe bloggs » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:23 pm

Well Nolan is well up to speed with Sinn Fein economic policy. I read in the paper last week she was calling for a 15 % cut in the LPT while not being able to point out where the council could make up the €750000 shortfall for the council budget.
Perhaps some Northern Bank money could plug the gap.
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Re: new offaly constituency?

Postby SearingDrive » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:45 pm

Plain of the Herbs wrote:You’d imagine the new Offaly constituency will return one Fianna Fáil, one Fine Gael, with the other seat between John Leahy and Carol Nolan.

There’s quite an imbalance of candidates between east and west, and you’d think if the right candidate ran in South Offaly / North Tipperary that they’d stand a right good chance. I reckon there’s a half a quota in the North Tipperary area (which extends to the bridge at the meat factory on the way into Nenagh) and if O’Meara (Lowry team) from Lorrha was to run, he could claim the third seat.

Peter Ormond was ideally located geographically but didn't impress his party headquarters when he flip flopped about contesting his party’s convention. Of the independents, I suppose John Leahy is best placed to step into the 'hurling district'.

I’m surprised Fine Gael are running just a single candidate. I had expected Liam Quinn to run, and to take a seat. There are statistics somewhere on the internet that show there was a far greater movement of Fine Gael votes from Laois to Offaly and vice versa than there was of of Fianna Fáil votes (based on social class), so it will be interesting to see where such votes will go now. Remember Corcoran-Kennedy lost her seat on the County Council in the 2009 Local elections.

Also surprised Brendan Killeavy isn’t running for Sinn Féin, who I thought was lining up a seat. The speed with which Nolan stepped in once Killeavy’s withdrawal became common knowledge leaves on to presume that the party’s preference for blonds female candidates swung it. So, who’ll sway the Tullamore town vote in their direction? Will Killeavy’s vote hold firm along party lines? If it does, you’d say Nolan.

As with all elections under the single transferable vote system, transfers matter. FF & FG will hardly have more than a quota each, so they’ll each take a seat. Which of Nolan or Leahy will attract transfers from others? But the right candidate running in Tipperary could do well.

Incidentally, the 2011 GE produced the following in the old Laois Offaly constituency: FG 34%, FF 27%, SF 11%, Lab 8%, Others 20%.

Ideally a candidate in South Offaly/North Tipp would stand a good chance in the next election, but the candidates are mainly in North and mid Offaly so far.
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Re: new offaly constituency?

Postby Plain of the Herbs » Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:52 pm

Time to bump this up.
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Re: new offaly constituency?

Postby Lone Shark » Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:13 pm

It's been quite surprising to read how widely tipped John Leahy is to take the third seat. I'm not living in the county at the moment so I don't know how he's faring as a council representative, but he clearly must be flying if so many media outlets make him the clear favourite. I know it's tighter with the bookies, but he's still the front runner by a clear margin.

Funnily enough, from a position where it looked as if North Offaly would have the majority of candidates, we're now in a situation where in my opinion, it looks highly unlikely that there will be any elected representative farther north/east than Clara. Fine Gael choosing to run one candidate surprised me, but I suspect that they understood that winning two seats was impossible with a likely share of the vote of around 30%, so they choose to stick with the incumbent, and also not to put in a running mate when the running mate would be male (Quinn, presumably) and thus cause them an additional gender quota headache.

Similarly, there's realistically only one seat in it for Fianna Fáil, and if Barry Cowen was a little bit weaker, then there might be a chance of Eddie Fitzpatrick edging ahead of him on the first count and thus getting over the line first. However Cowen has gained quite the profile for himself over the past few years and when the family name is factored into the equation, he should be a lock to get home. Fitzpatrick is fourth in the list to get in but frankly, I just can't see it. Even if the transfers of the likely Cowen surplus go to him by a factor of over 50%, you're still talking about FF getting 45% or more of the first preference as a whole - and for all the collective amnesia that's going on regarding events of 5-10 years ago, I don't see that happening - particularly with John Foley hoovering up a good share of traditional FF votes down that part of the world.

If Brendan Killeavy was running, I'd say the third seat would be his. However he's not, and Carol Nolan might be a bit too much of an unknown to pick up a massive personal vote, which will be needed to supplement what is a comparatively low party vote in the area. That said, it comes back to the issue of the North Tipp section - there are a lot of votes down there and you'd have to imagine that while Joe Hannigan will pick up a huge share of the first preferences on offer, he'll struggle to get anything north of Rathcabbin. Where his votes go will determine a lot. What could make it interesting would be if there was a meaningful vote pact between Hannigan and Leahy. I don't know how realistic that is, but it would make it a stone cold certainty that one of the two would get home. Leahy would be favourite then, and probably still is now, though I'd find it hard to back any of them with confidence.
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Re: new offaly constituency?

Postby Plain of the Herbs » Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:09 pm

Difficult to make comparisons with recent General Election results with the new constituency. However, the 2014 Offaly County Council results show some interesting results. They were

FF 34%
FG 17%
SF 17%
John Leahy 8% (as a percentage of the county as a whole)
John Foley 3% (as a percentage of the county as a whole)
Others 21% (of which nearly half was made up of Dervill Dolan (5.7%) and John Carroll (3.2%))

Some national commentators have earmarked Eddie Fitzpatrick for the second seat, which surprised me, though Ivan Yates pointed out that he based his analysis on geography. But in the local Election, FF’s 34% was split 11% Birr LEA, 13% Tullamore LEA and 9.6% Edenderry LEA. On the basis that Barry Cowen appears to be allocated the Birr and Tullamore LEAs by his party, there would be no Cowen surplus (he’d top the poll but be just under a quota) and no second seat for FF.

I wonder were FG party headquarters spooked by the 17% showing at the Locals. Perhaps they were, and decided to run a single candidate.

John Leahy was elected to the council having polled 1.6 quotas in the Birr LEA. He’d need to pick up quite a number of transfers along the way. He polled 4,882 in the last General Election but only picked up 570 more along the way prior to his elimination. Other hand he’ll have South Offaly in his constituency this time (the far south voted in north Tipperary last time).

Looking at the distribution of John Leahy’s voted following his elimination in the 2011 GE, 24% of those went to MCK, but 11% went to Sinn Féin’s Brian Stanley. They are not so ‘transfer repellant’ as they used to be. With Sinn Féin likely to get a ‘party’ vote, a repeat of the 2014 Council results would see Carol Nolan well in the race – this despite being a relative unknown, not being an Offaly native, and a relatively poor showing on Vincent Browne’s live show in Tullamore.

Joe Hannigan is an interesting one. He polled 11% on the first count in the Nenagh area, with 1.1 quotas. Michael O’Meara, another independent, also polled well, with 8%. With Tipperary votes presumably going to stay in Tipperary (“votes don’t swim” being a mantra), and with Hannigan being well placed to pick up votes in South Offaly too, he’ll have a say. He won’t be in the running for a seat. Which of Nolan and Leahy will benefit from his transfers?

Incidentally, the parties’ share of the vote in the Nenagh district of Tipperary County Council was - FG 23%, FF 22%, SF 9%.

All down to transfers. Cowen to top the poll, with Corcoran-Kennedy, Leahy and Nolan still standing facing into the final count.
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Re: new offaly constituency?

Postby keyboardwarrior » Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:54 pm

You know who ...
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Re: new offaly constituency?

Postby frankthetank » Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:40 am

Plain of the Herbs wrote:Looking at the distribution of John Leahy’s voted following his elimination in the 2011 GE, 24% of those went to MCK, but 11% went to Sinn Féin’s Brian Stanley. They are not so ‘transfer repellant’ as they used to be. With Sinn Féin likely to get a ‘party’ vote, a repeat of the 2014 Council results would see Carol Nolan well in the race – this despite being a relative unknown, not being an Offaly native, and a relatively poor showing on Vincent Browne’s live show in Tullamore.


POTH,

I have no idea where you got your information about Carol Nolan but I can assure you she went to primary school in Kinnitty and secondary school in Kilcormac. She is as Offaly as you or I.
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Re: new offaly constituency?

Postby Plain of the Herbs » Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:59 pm

I thought she was from Carlow. She has some Carlow connection though, hasn't she? And she has the 'twang' to prove it.
frankthetank wrote:
Plain of the Herbs wrote:Looking at the distribution of John Leahy’s voted following his elimination in the 2011 GE, 24% of those went to MCK, but 11% went to Sinn Féin’s Brian Stanley. They are not so ‘transfer repellant’ as they used to be. With Sinn Féin likely to get a ‘party’ vote, a repeat of the 2014 Council results would see Carol Nolan well in the race – this despite being a relative unknown, not being an Offaly native, and a relatively poor showing on Vincent Browne’s live show in Tullamore.


POTH,

I have no idea where you got your information about Carol Nolan but I can assure you she went to primary school in Kinnitty and secondary school in Kilcormac. She is as Offaly as you or I.
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Re: new offaly constituency?

Postby kingscounty » Sat Feb 13, 2016 5:01 pm

keyboardwarrior wrote:You know who ...

Love it
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Re: new offaly constituency?

Postby Bord na Mona man » Thu Feb 25, 2016 6:21 pm

Forget about Flat Tax and 3 strikes from criminals, bringing games to Birr could be a swing issue.

"Renua's John Leahy was sitting in Emma's Café in Birr, explaining why he was used to working long hours in a business where everyone wants a quick word, when a chap on the street spotted him through the window. He buttonholed him for a quick word about a campaign to bring Offaly's inter-county hurling matches back to the town's ground, St Brendan's Park. John assured him of his support, then sat back down to drink his tea. "

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/po ... 37056.html
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Re: new offaly constituency?

Postby Lone Shark » Sun Feb 28, 2016 2:19 am

Seemingly the pro-SBP vote wasn't enough to get John over the line after all. Not quite done and dusted yet, but it's looking as if Carol Nolan will join Barry Cowen and Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy as Offaly TD's in the next Dáil, for however long that lasts. Yet again, North Offaly fails to get a local candidate over the line, despite a very decent effort by Eddie Fitzpatrick.
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Re: new offaly constituency?

Postby Plain of the Herbs » Sun Feb 28, 2016 11:48 am

j leahy no elected and anti kk bias in offaly

Seriously now. There doesn't appear to be a quota in North Offaly. The tots poll in the Edenderry LEA at the 2014 local elections was 8,859. The total poll yesterday was 44k. That's 20%, and a quota in a 3 seated is 25%. That's before you consider 'leakage' with only 1/3rd if John Foley's votes finding the way to Eddie Fitzpatrick.

That Sinn Féin took a seat is not a surprise.
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