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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 12:02 pm
by Mighty Pair O' Hands
Lone Shark wrote:While I'm at it, Powers 6/1 about the Aer Lingus IPO being set at €2.50 or greater is a tad on the generous side to my estimation.


Unlikely - Investment fund managers are sceptical re Aer Lingus as a long term punt and will want price deflated - if it tops €2.30, I will be shocked.

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 12:23 pm
by Lone Shark
You can sell at €2.57 with Delta Index then.

I dunno. I think the wheeler Dealer in the Irish government will come out here. They'll have enough interest so they'll milk it, much like they did with the Eircom launch price.

Remember I'm talking about the launch price here, not where it settles after day 1. I know there's question marks, but those landing slots alone are worth a fortune - you could even asset strip that company and get €2 per share back.

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 12:55 pm
by Mighty Pair O' Hands
The Eircom privatisation was a PR disaster for the government though because a lot of ordinary people got burned. Election coming up so big incentive to sell it off cheaply and let everyone win a little.

Add in that the Aviation industry is vulnerable at the moment with the current "terrorist" climate, investment funds' strong preference for Ryanair and Aer Lingus's unionisation, all leads me to a low flotation price. I agree if it were a private sale and not a public asset, the underlying balance sheet says closer to €3.......

Key point is Government PR one - I think they will play safe.

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 1:17 pm
by Lone Shark
The difference though is that Eircom was pitched to the general public, and huge numbers of Joe Public bought in - I don't believe that's the case this time around. Voter perception is a key issue obviously, but I would say if the government was to think in terms of politics, the issue of not being seen to sell off the family silver cheaply would probably outweight the potential loss to institutions, which will always be faceless entities to the Irish psyche.

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 1:44 pm
by the Untouchable
€2.50 is going to be a bit too high for a launch price if you ask me. Especially based on the fact that Aer Lingus are not going to be offering any dividend on these shares so there's no return for the investor. If they were to launch at €2.50 then they'll have to provide some kind of a return to investors!!!

I reckon €2 is the max although my work colleagues here who seem to be in the know say €1.85 is probably the most the price its likely to be!!!

I don't think €2.50 would be good value for money plus the Government are also going the price to be able to maintain itself which it probably will do at €1.65 - €1.90.

Its actually a very tempting bet though, I wish you the best of luck with it LS...it'll have to a better investment than in to the shares themselves!!!

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 1:51 pm
by Lone Shark
Martin Cullen has said that it will be between €2.10 and €2.70. I'd be amazed if it deviated from that.

As you say, either way the bet is better than the investment. If there wasn't the employee stakeholding I'd say it would do a lot better, that's my main concern.

PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 7:13 pm
by Lone Shark
Best I stick to GAA betting then.

PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 11:33 am
by Lone Shark
I'm slightly annoyed at this this morning. Granted it's probably just a stunt from Ryanair, but even so it seems the government undersold a state asset by several hundred million euro, or at least €100 per citizen in the state. Hardly good governance.

Aside from the fact that my bet should have clicked if the damn thing was priced properly .... :evil:

PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2006 9:45 am
by Lone Shark
Back to the GAA betting for me.....

UCD to win the Dublin senior football championship - get on now. 5/2 with Boyles, 9/4 with Powers if you have to. Kilmacud won their quarter final by 0-11 to 0-8 - and Mark Vaughan scored eight points. He's out injured, as is Mark Davoren, leaving them only Cosgrove up front, who is streaky at best. Their semi with UCD has been fixed for this Thursday, which means that a lot of UCD country players (including Niall Mac) will be available to flesh out their team from the last day. They were very impressive against Round Towers Clondalkin in their quarter final, and Billy Sheehan (Laois) only came off the bench due to being still involved with Emo. He'll start, as will probably McNamee, Paul Earls of Wicklow and maybe Ward of Meath, though I'm not sure about him what with him having a county final on Sunday.

The other semi is between an ageing Na Fianna and a very middling St. Vincent's - can't see either of those two upsetting either UCD or kilmacud in a final.

Strong recommendation this one.

PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2006 10:30 am
by True Red
mcnamee isnt in ucd this year.

PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2006 10:46 am
by Lone Shark
No, but he's eligible because he was part of their panel when the Dublin championship started. I'm not sure whether or not he's eligible for Sigerson, but I'm pretty sure he's going to be in the panel tomorrow night.

I have a fuzzy recollection of players being allowed one year after they leave college, which was exploited by McManus among others, but I'm not certain of this - anyone able to confirm/deny?

PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2006 11:28 am
by Lone Shark
Hoors went and postponed the game - if that semi had been played tonight, UCD would have been in a great position. As it is I still like their chances.

Strong possibility all the fussing in Dublin will open the door for Rhode in Leinster - Dublin have to have representatives by the 5th of November. With the Na Fianna/EPOR case likely to go through the Leinster Council and the DRA, I'd say they'll be doing very well to make that deadline.

PostPosted: Tue Oct 31, 2006 2:09 pm
by Lone Shark
I don't know if anyone followed me in on this, but for those that are of a conservative nature, covering your stake at Powers 15/8 might not be a bad idea. Vinnies have been consistenly under rated this year, and based on what I saw last Thursday, Gilroy at midfield and Mossie up front could have a field day.

I still expect the college to win, but 15/8 could be worth a covering bet.

PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2006 4:39 pm
by Lone Shark
Free money one for ye.

http://www.Sunderlands.co.uk - will match your first bet of up to €25/£25. They are 4/1 about Wigan winning at Bolton at the weekend, which can be laid at 3.9/1 on Betfair. You won't make anything on the arb, since commission will eat up the few pence, but if you back the 4/1, lay it on BF, any result sees you up by the extra €25/£25.


If ye're bored and ye have a few minutes to spare.

PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:45 pm
by Lone Shark
This won't be to the taste of a lot of ye, but French Rugby this weekend - Montpellier vs Perpignan. Back Montpellier plus three points with Skybet or Bet365.

Information in here (which by definition is rumour, always is in the trade) is that since Perpignan are missing so many players (8) due to internationals, they are throwing their hat at it, and sending a youth team. Again I stress that this may turn out to be untrue, but I generally trust this particular source.

I'm in it up to my gills, but ye can decide for yereselves what ye want to do.