The Betting Thread.....

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Postby Lone Shark » Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:45 pm

That was meant to be an 8 where the sunglasses character appeared up there .....
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Postby Lone Shark » Sat Feb 24, 2007 4:06 am

It's been ages since I've thrown in one of these, so here we go again. This one is no good to me since I've had my accounts restricted and closed so many times with this company you'd swear I was offering to pay them with western union via Lagos, but anyway.

Bet 365 do a market on live football matches called the "race to 10" - i.e. the first team to get to 10 points. They used to price 33/1 no team to win, and then they got burned on a few games. I went to have a look for the Cork vs Tyrone match, because Cork games are always savage low scoring - I thought at 20/1 or bigger it might be worth a small nibble, which is all I'm allowed with them.

Instead they have seen and grossly over-reacted - 6/1. However what they have also done is not taken into account that by the time either side reaches ten points in the game, they'll be as near to winning as makes no difference. If I was pricing it I'd be 1/2 Tyrone, 2/1 Cork and 11/1 neither team. However they've priced it as if it was half time betting, making Tyrone 8/11 - too big.

Now before we start, Tyrone are available at 4/7 with Cashmans to win the game, and I on the other hand am firmly in the northerners camp for this one. They have Stephen O'Neill back and generally look too strong for a weak Cork side with Masters not scoring, but I am out of line with 4/11 Tyrone and 13/5 Cork. All that said, I do recommend this 8/11 shot.

It's not the biggest recommendation I'll ever give, but ye could do a lot worse.
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Postby Hyper » Mon Feb 26, 2007 10:07 am

Bet365 will be taking my bets for a while after that one LS!
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Postby Lone Shark » Mon Feb 26, 2007 1:14 pm

My apologies for that one there Hyper. I have to say I really didn't see that performance from the Cork lads in the pipeline at all. Even at 0-6 to 0-4 at the half I wasn't unduly worried, I kept waiting for Mickey Harte to wake his lads up and get them going. Never happened.

In general 2007 hasn't been great at all yet, so rest assured however much you're down, I'm much worse .... :(
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Postby Lone Shark » Thu Mar 22, 2007 5:45 pm

Okay, we'll try again, but like the child that was burned at the range before, ever so gingerly does it .....

Limerick at home to Tyrone this weekend - the bet I'm suggesting is Limerick plus five with Powers, but I'm hesitant - what say the masses, based on this logic....

(1) Current form we all know about - couldn't have Tyrone at the moment
(2) Limerick at home, and playing a double header - ergo much bigger home support
(3) Tyrone under 21s unavailable due to playing Armagh
(4) Second game on the card in winter - hurlers will have cut up the ground, so they'll be playing in a bog - not condusive to high scoring at all.

Now I understand that in the championship this would be a rout, but so far Limerick in the leage have (1) Lost to Dublin by a point (2) Beaten Fermanagh in Fermanagh (3) Lost to Mayo by a couple of points and (4) Lost to Kerry by a goal.

Nothing there suggests that they should have any difficulty getting within five of Tyrone, at least until Tyrone find their feet. Thoughts?
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Postby The Magpie » Fri Mar 23, 2007 10:02 am

I think I'd go with that. Scores will be hard come by. One thing to keep in mind is that I'd expect Tyrone to start humming at some point, but maybe not just yet.

What odds are you offering for this little Stanley 8?
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Postby Lone Shark » Fri Mar 23, 2007 1:37 pm

Powers were a five - however they cut me back to sweet feck all of a bet, and have now cut it to four - I have to say, I'd still go for more if there's more out there.

Leading the race is Bet365 with 5/6 about +4.5 points- however we all know how easy it is to get on with those scoury hoors. I'll keep ye posted if I see anything else.
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Postby juteman » Mon Mar 26, 2007 11:17 pm

Thanks LS you got me looking at the GAA h/caps and I went with Limerick footballers +4 at 1/1,Dublin hurlers +6 at 5/6,and Wexford hurlers +6 at 4/5 to give a decent treble at just over 6and a half to one and it came home rather comfortably.
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Postby Lone Shark » Tue Jul 03, 2007 1:09 pm

Another one of those low risk ones have presented themselves this weekend.

Bet365 are responsible, they have the wrong price up - 2/5 about Derry to be knocked out in the qualifiers. (Go into their "Team performance" section under Gaelic football to find it.

Back the 2/5, and then back Derry to progress against Armagh at the weekend. I'm going to be 9/4, but some other bookies might be bigger. If you have €500 @ 2/5 and €200 @ 9/4, then if Armagh qualify you get your €700 back off bet365, and if Derry qualify you get €650 back off Lads, so you're down €50, but you stand to get €700 if Derry get knocked out in rounds 2 or 3 of the qualifiers.

Essentially you're betting @ 14/1, Derry to lose in round 2 or 3, and no bet if they don't beat Armagh. This is excellent value - it should be odds on if that happens. I won't get on this one myself because Bet365 allow me pennies and they'd only cut the price, but I couldn't recommend it strongly enough. Price won't last though I suspect.
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Postby Lone Shark » Mon Jul 09, 2007 5:06 pm

Lone Shark wrote:Another one of those low risk ones have presented themselves this weekend.

Bet365 are responsible, they have the wrong price up - 2/5 about Derry to be knocked out in the qualifiers. (Go into their "Team performance" section under Gaelic football to find it.

Back the 2/5, and then back Derry to progress against Armagh at the weekend. I'm going to be 9/4, but some other bookies might be bigger. If you have €500 @ 2/5 and €200 @ 9/4, then if Armagh qualify you get your €700 back off bet365, and if Derry qualify you get €650 back off Lads, so you're down €50, but you stand to get €700 if Derry get knocked out in rounds 2 or 3 of the qualifiers.

Essentially you're betting @ 14/1, Derry to lose in round 2 or 3, and no bet if they don't beat Armagh. This is excellent value - it should be odds on if that happens. I won't get on this one myself because Bet365 allow me pennies and they'd only cut the price, but I couldn't recommend it strongly enough. Price won't last though I suspect.



Please tell me someone did this? Anyone who did got a glorious result at the weekend, you can lay off now if you want....
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Postby TheManFromFerbane » Tue Jul 10, 2007 9:28 am

Doh!!

:oops:
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Postby juteman » Thu Jul 12, 2007 2:06 pm

No account with Bet365 and nowhere near the odds anywhere else..

Keep up the good work.
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Postby Lone Shark » Sat Jul 28, 2007 12:24 pm

I don't expect this to last very long, so move quickly.

Both Paddy Power and Boylesports are offering Andrew O'Shaughnessy's total points in the Limerick/Clare match at the weekend. Interestingly, Paddy Power are even money under 6.5, and Boyles are even money over 5.5.


If after all this time ye still need me to explain what to do from here, there's no hope!!

I would recommend going on to Boyles first - I suggest that their price will crack before PP's.
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Postby Lone Shark » Sat Aug 11, 2007 1:18 am

One for ye for the weekend if ye're so inclined....

PP - 8/11 Dan Shanahan to score under 5.5 points.
Boyles - 11/10 Dan to score a goal at any time.

Back both, and I would imagine that you're a hell of a lot more likely to emerge with two payouts when Dan scores 1-1 or 1-2 than you are to come out with nothing if he gets 0-6. (Never raised six white flags in his intercounty career). Most likely you'll get one or t'other and lose a small amount, but I think it's worth the risk.

For good measure Boyles are refunding anytime goalscorers if number 13 scores the last goal - Shaughnessy and Mullane running for you, no harm in that.
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Postby Lone Shark » Tue Oct 16, 2007 3:46 pm

Right, one for those of you who are close to a PP shop and very quick....

I've heard a rumour from a reasonable source that Stan will be told to do the ong walk on Thursday morning and that our soccer team will be looking for a manager again. Normally this would be classed among the less interesting pieces of news, but Paddy Power are offering a market on the first man to leave his job - Stan @ 11/8, Eddie O'Sullivan @ 7/4 and Bartholemew Ahern @ 2/1. Now my source is decent but not rock solid - however one of two things can happen - either he walks on Thursday and you get paid out, or he doesn't and you're still on a decent 11/8 shot. I would recommend this fairly highly.

It is online, on the front page of their novelty section - however they usually don't lay good bets here. I've gone into a few shops having a moderate bet in each in order to get a few bob on, and if any of ye are close to a PP shop I would suggest doing the same. Go online and they'll cut your bet back to nothing, and it'll destroy it for everyone else.

This is not likely to last too long - I suggest haste.
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