The Betting Thread.....

A forum to air your views on Offaly GAA matters and beyond.

Postby Lone Shark » Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:08 pm

That's 1st point from play. About right.
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Postby Lone Shark » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:42 pm

Seeing as my match bets are going west but my scorer bets are going much better, let's have another go.

Ladbrokes, for some reason best known to themselves, have not only priced up the Tommy Murphy Cup, but have also priced up Top Scorer in that competition. Now this is a shot in the dark without doubt, but I'll say this - every team hates the idea of being in this competition - but someone still has to win the bloody thing. They can't all lose.

So, in that spirit, Simon Rea @ 10/1. Carlow start with a home game against Wicklow, followed by a home game against London. Even if they're not trying, there's still a good chance they'll win these games. If Rea starts, and I see no reason why he wouldn't, he should run up a decent tally. At 1/3 the odds to finish in the first three, and expecting him to get at least three games, I think he's worth a small investment. I'm not going to town on this one - it could easily go badly wrong - but I think he's worth a nibble.

That's my two cents anyway.
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Postby Lone Shark » Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:01 pm

Pay attention, I've another one .......

Tis one of those arb like efforts - no risk, but you've to commit funds - between PP, Boyles and Ladbrokes.

Here's what I've done - if you've less/more money at your disposal, just multiply across the three bets by a pro rata amount.

Offaly to score first with Lads - 360 @ 7/4
Dublin to score the first point with Powers - 573.2 @ 8/11
First Scoring play to be a Dublin goal with Boyles - 47.1 @ 16/1.

Total stake - 980.3. All bets payout 990. So you make a tenner anyway, but for a tenner it's not worth the effort. You must collect off at least one - if Offaly score first either way you collect off ladbrokes, if Dublin do you will be collecting off one of your Power or Boyles bets. However, the trick is if the first score of the game is a goal for either team, followed by a Dublin point - by my estimation around a 16/1 shot. If that happens, you then get a double payout. Ladbrokes and Powers bets both win if its an Offaly goal followed by a Dublin point, while Boyles and Powers both win if it's a Dublin goal followed by a Dublin point.

It's a little bit of effort, but for me it's a free shot at a grand. I just though I'd share it with you.
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Postby Lone Shark » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:28 pm

Okay, after Henry's heroics the last day that turned Eoin Kelly from a 1/2 shot to a 50/1 shot in one fell swoop, I've been a little bit tender about betting topics since. Translated into Euros that cost me basically five figures - I'm not a happy bunny.

But anyway, all good things come to those who believe - and all of a sudden there is a little bit of free money to be had to cheer us up again.

This one requires a little effort, but again it's a guaranteed no lose. However in one sense you'll earn it.

http://www.mansion.com are an American sportsbook based in Gibraltar. The name may be familiar to Premiership watchers among you, seeing as they signed a $65m sponsorship deal with Spurs starting this year. They've come up with an offer that is, to be honest, nothing short of ludicrous. If you back the Steelers on the handicap line for the first NFL game of the year (at home to Miami) for $1100, they'll pay you out if you win and refund the bet if you lose.

Normally when I hear stuff like this, I assume there will be a catch - a turnaround requirement or something, but I've rang up to check, and no. It's all good. One problem is that you must be sure to back Pittsburgh at 10/11 on the handicap line, and you must bet at least $1100, or the euro equivalent which is €850. They will only refund €850 even if you bet more, so be careful of that.

Secondly, for security reasons, the maximum credit card deposit is €350, so you have to find another way of depositing. I used moneybookers, but I believe they would take neteller or paypal as well, though you may want to check this.

Once you have the bet placed, you have two options. You can either hedge the bet by placing half the stake on the other side with another bookmaker, guaranteeing you €400 either way roughly, or you could do like I'll probably do and stand the bet. It's the Steelers, Superbowl champions, at home to Miami. Methinks the terrible towels will be waving that night.

I might even buy one myself.

Image
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Postby An Bearcán Bearaigh » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:28 am

Taking on the Lone Shark on gambling matters is not dissimilar to challenging His Holiness Pope Benedict on matters of dogma, but there have been delevopments in the States that adversely effect the maths of this proposition.

The Pittsburgh quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, will not start on Thursday due to an appendectomy, and wide receiver Hines Ward - last year's Super Bowl MVP - is also doubful. Miami are a team on the up - I'd be taking Miami with the points myself.

http://www.nfl.com/teams/story/PIT/9636328

And, to restore karmic balance on a GAA board after all this American football, hats off to Brian Cody. I don't know how Offaly feel about Kilkenny generally, but you have to admire the way Cody got his men to get stuck into Cork yesterday. Fair play to them.
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Postby Lone Shark » Mon Sep 04, 2006 1:28 pm

I'm not for a minute saying that if it was my own money I'd be getting involved in the Steelers - far from it. A vulnerable favourite first week out is always a dodgy home for any hard earned. (Or ill-gotten for that matter)

However I just find it hard to see how a 9-7 team from last year that is also without a starting QB can be expected to be within a Yankee kick of a ball at the end against a team that is still World Champions. It's a 50/50 call, but thanks to the proud fellow county men of An Bearcán my betting fortunes have revived considerably in recent weeks, so I'm going to stand them....
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Postby An Bearcán Bearaigh » Fri Sep 08, 2006 11:40 am

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/recap/NFL ... 07_MIA@PIT

Woe to he that would doubt the Lone Shark. Another coup for punters' friend. Bravo, maestro, bravo!
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Postby Lone Shark » Fri Sep 08, 2006 1:40 pm

Twas a late recovery, but thankfully the punter never minds the nature of the winner, as long as it gets past the post .... :D
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Postby Lone Shark » Fri Sep 15, 2006 12:29 pm

For what it's worth I'm having a few bob on Mortimer to outscore Colm Cooper @ 8/11 with PP. His last three games he's scored 0-5, 0-5 and 0-7. Cooper has got 0-4, 0-3 and 1-3. Higgins is suited to Cooper while Mort should do okay against Kerry's full back line. It's only a touch of value, but it's worth a few pence.
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mayo

Postby edenderry » Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:24 pm

mayo 5/2 any use ?
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Postby Lone Shark » Wed Sep 20, 2006 9:41 am

Yet again Mortimer collapses in a final. Hadn't scored less than six points all year, and that would have been enough for him. Ah well.

This is ridiculously long term, but Boyles have priced up the 2007 football All Ireland, and they have Tyrone at 8/1, which is a ridiculous price. They'll be no bigger than 4/1 when the season starts, and will be into 3/1 or shorter once they reach the quarters, which they should when injuries clear up.

If you can afford to put a few bob away for a while, it's the kind of price you should be able to trade back on Betfair once the season kicks in.
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Postby Lone Shark » Wed Sep 20, 2006 9:45 am

Disregard they above - they've just cut 11/2 on the strength of my bet. Sorry for taking all the sweets folks ....
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Postby juteman » Wed Sep 20, 2006 10:39 am

LS Mayo scored a goal 1st. Could your mix of bets as per the Leinster final of worked?
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Postby Lone Shark » Wed Sep 20, 2006 10:56 am

Nah, you see the bet is based around Ladbrokes price for team to score first, which is usually overpriced on the underdogs. Obvious in a game like last sunday, where total points was pitched at around 31 with Kerry 5 point favourites, you're expecting a score along the lines of 2-12 to 1-10 on average, or maybe 1-15 to 1-10.

Say 15 scores to 11 on average - so it should be around 58% and 42% whcih team will score first, not counting the fact that underdogs are marginally more likely to get early scores than late ones.

But it was all moot because the first score for the purposes of this bet was Mike Frank's point.
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Postby Lone Shark » Wed Sep 20, 2006 11:39 am

While I'm at it, Powers 6/1 about the Aer Lingus IPO being set at €2.50 or greater is a tad on the generous side to my estimation.

Gut feeling.
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