The Betting Thread.....

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The Betting Thread.....

Postby Lone Shark » Mon Apr 10, 2006 4:24 pm

I'm going to consolidate all my betting suggestions in here. That way at the end of the year ye'll have a warts and all picture and can decide whether I'm actually any help or just a complete spoofer!! New suggestions below...... :D


(Previously Title After my failed 25/1 to top 1A bet .....)


..... I have learned nothing. I'm now going round the sites hoovering up all the 80/1 or better. I'm completely and utterly over-reacting, I know this, but someone has to reach an All Ireland final - and at each way 1/2 the odds 1-2, surely we're a reasonable shot at 40/1?

I know, I know, fool and money going separate ways, but feck it. :wink:
Last edited by Lone Shark on Mon May 22, 2006 5:36 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Lone Shark » Wed Apr 26, 2006 4:00 pm

Good Christ - Ladbrokes are now 125/1. In fairness, this is ridiculous. We are roughly 70% chances to make the last 8 (50/50 vs Wexford, 40/60 if we lose that game). This means (@63/1 to reach the final) that we are 40/1 to win two games???

I'm already on for way more than is sensible, but it seems I'll have to go get my betting shovel again ..... :twisted:
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Postby Bord na Mona man » Wed Apr 26, 2006 4:07 pm

Top scorer 33-1: Brian Carroll (Offaly) with Ladbrokes.
If we lose to Wexford, I'd say Carroll will be right up there.
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Postby Ron » Wed Apr 26, 2006 4:22 pm

I put a few bob on Offaly to win the LHC @ 12/1 before the Tipp game, sure you'd never know!
Any other interesting bets out there, odds to reach semi's etc?
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Postby Lone Shark » Wed Apr 26, 2006 4:29 pm

I'm working on this at the moment - I'm not expecting any bets of the order of James Young last year ( :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: ) but even so I expect there will be one or two holes in their pricing - there always are.

Gut feeling - the Boy Wonder at 14/1 could be the touch. I have Tipp down for MLE (Most likely estimate) five games - with plenty of draw possibilities in Munster against Limerick or the Blaas. Ideally they'd beat Limerick and lose to Waterford, but my suspicion is that Waterford will flop big style this year. Still, 14/1 about a consistently high scorer in a team with a track record for scoring heavily as well as conceding heavily is my initial call anyway.

If I could be sure Dave Curtin would take the frees in Dublin he'd be a good bet at 40/1. Not sure if that will stay the case though.
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Postby Mighty Pair O' Hands » Wed Apr 26, 2006 5:03 pm

With Paul Flynn ( to be decided) and Eoin Kelly (3 month ban) on the suspension list, and John Mullane after breaking a collar bone (and not his wrist as previously reported) I would agree with you LS that Waterford are unlikely to go anywhere this year.
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Postby Lone Shark » Mon May 22, 2006 5:33 am

I'm a bit emotional today, I had my eye on New York to take Derry this year in Ulster for a while, and I came home this afternoon to find that it was initially priced at 5/2 before getting chopped all the way into odds on. Not being around for midweek has already doubled the cost of my holiday so, but sure one can't complain - onwards and upwards!!


A couple of standout bets up with Ladbrokes at the moment I think - well worth getting stuck into.

First and foremost - and this won't last the rest of the day, so act fast if you're interested - Derry to win the Nicky Rackard Cup @ 11/8. I'm amazed at their bravado to even have a go at that competition because it is all highly unknown, and I won't rule out that after tonight's game in NY the Derry boys might lose interest, but they were seriously understrength due to injuries and exam commitments, and even so I suspect that they'd still have enough to win this. London absolutely hacked up in this competition last year before finding division 2 of the league tough going this year - a level Derry have been settled at for some time. There is a risk they mightn't exactly burst themselves going all out for this, but even so, at 11/8 it's worth paying to see.

The other is Kerry's new freetaker - Bryan Sheehan, 20/1 to be top scorer. Not a lot to say really - he won't score heavily in the way O'Neill did last year, but at 1/5 the odds 1-2-3, a decent Kerry run by itself should see him there or thereabouts. Got 6 today against Waterford, will surely have around 18 or 20 on the board before getting out of Munster, and another 15 or so from there would see him into the places. A goal or two and a replay here and there along the way and you never know what might happen, but mainly for the place money.



I see Eoin Kelly got off to a flyer, but sadly now I need Waterford to pick things up and lob him back into the qualifiers where he can have a turkey shoot or two. I'd love to believe it will happen, but I suspect not. Here's hoping though.
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Postby Lone Shark » Mon May 22, 2006 11:24 am

I have another one for ye - but this is a bit more mathematical in nature. Those who like their betting simple, I suggest ye look away now......

Bet365 - known as Bet £3.65 to my good self and a few other guys due to their general staking size allowed, have price up stage of elimination in the hurling championship. Obviously I took an interest in their Offaly market, but I noticed they have ourselves and Wexford at the same prices - fair enough. However they have greatly underestimated both teams.

Basically you are opposing the 1.95 on each team being eliminated in the qualifiers - for the simple reason that whoever wins that tie is guaranteed to make the quarters, while the loser will go into the qualifiers. So here's what you do - based on €127 total stake, of which the most you can lose is €27. For each team, do the following bets .....

50 @ evs - QF Elimination
7.7 @ 13 - SF Elimination
3.85 @ 26 - Final elimination
1.95 @ 50 - Winner

Total Spend = 127

Since the winner of that game goes into the Leinster Final and thus into the quarters guaranteed, at least one team must pay out on one of their four bets, returning €100. So in effect you are betting €27 @ 11/4 that the other team also qualifies through the qualifiers. I think this price is very big, since they will be drawn with one other minnow and two teams from Munster or one from Munster and Galway. Say the worst case scenario - it's Offaly, and we're drawn with Dublin, Galway and Clare. Even then we still - in all likelihood - just need to beat Dublin, which should be straightforward, and one of the other two. Unlikely, but not an 11/4 chance - that would make us 7/1 in each game, which would be too big. Now consider the opposite - we/Wexford draw a group with Westmeath, Waterford and Limerick. Suddenly 11/4 is huge.

As always, draw your own conclusions - I think it makes great sense though. I can't do it myself, due to my absurdly low limits with that firm (They often restrict me to under €10 on a bet), but for those of you interested, go nuts .......
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thread

Postby edenderry » Fri Jun 23, 2006 4:44 pm

any action on this of late, need something for the weekend
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Postby Lone Shark » Fri Jun 23, 2006 6:22 pm

Sadly I've nothing to really strongly recommend to you this weekend. I've had a nibble on Cavan plus two points @ 6/5 with VCbet - I believe they've cut but Boyles are the same price.

Two utterly muck teams, but I'd give Cavan every chance of giving them a game at least.
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For whats its worth

Postby juteman » Fri Jun 23, 2006 11:59 pm

My little punt this week like LS involves Cavan (+2) at evens and Cork (-4) at 5/6.Double with Paddy Power.
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Postby Lone Shark » Thu Jun 29, 2006 12:01 pm

I haven't exactly been on a good run for the last while - the World Cup has been absolutely carnage for me - but in saying that, there are a few that stand out for me this weekend - let me know what ye think.

Personally I think our hurlers are overpriced @ 6/4 (PP) and our footballers would be worth opposing (5/6 +2 - Sean Graham), but seeing as I've enough emotional involvement there without adding financial involvement in with it, I'm looking down the card at other games.

The main one I'm looking at is Roscommon @ 11/4 (Boyles) to beat Meath. Nothing Meath have done this year suggests that they are a strong team. One good half against Louth, woeful against Wexford, and getting by a Carlow team that look to be abysmal - certainly Laois did the formline no favours at the weekend. Roscommon are far from world beaters, but that's a big price about two moderate teams, even with home advantage in play. I'd have said 4/7 Meath and 7/4 Ros as the right prices. I'm tempted to take Longford -3 at evens (Cashmans) as well. Longford were unlucky to lose out to Dublin, won well in Waterford, and now take on a very moderate Tipp side at home? I can easily see that being a comfortable home win.

Any thoughts?
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Betting... On the double

Postby Hocker » Thu Jun 29, 2006 12:45 pm

Alright LS, was just talking to a mate of mine, asked what odds on Offaly winning both matches this weekend, I quoted him 3 or 3.5 to 1, would that be roughly correct??

I reckon alright that our hurlers are overpriced... I see Paddypower.com have Limerick as 8/13 to win, after their result against Clare, I thought they were mad odds on them coming out of Tullamore with a win...
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Postby Lone Shark » Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:16 pm

About 3.5/1 is right.

I'm surprised at that hurling price, but I'm more surprised about the football price. I'd never bet on it, but Wexford could be good things at the 5/6 +2. I really don't see how we could be favourites over them at all.
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wexford

Postby edenderry » Thu Jun 29, 2006 5:34 pm

2/1 wexford to score 1st pt with ladbrokes ??
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