Latest All Ireland Odds and analysis

[HairyHole]

Kerry 2 - 1 Wexford 40 - 1 Sligo 300 - 1
Armagh 9 - 2 Derry 40 - 1 Leitrim 300 - 1
Tyrone 5 - 1 Limerick 50 - 1 Clare 300 - 1
Galway 10 - 1 Westmeath 80 - 1 Longford 500 - 1
Dublin 10 - 1 Offaly 80 - 1 Carlow 500 - 1
Mayo 12 - 1 Fermanagh 100 - 1 Wicklow 500 - 1
Laois 14 - 1 Monaghan 100 - 1 Louth 1000 - 1
Cork 18 - 1 Roscommon 100 - 1 Waterford 3000 - 1
Donegal 22 - 1 Down 100 - 1 Tipperary 3000 - 1
Kildare 25 - 1 Cavan 100 - 1 London 5000 - 1
Meath 28 - 1 Antrim 250 - 1


If you look at the latest odds for the All Ireland above , the only teams that may be in the backdoor draw that should beat us based on their price are

Dublin
Meath
Derry

So the chances of a decent draw in the qualifiers are quite good.

Its interesting to look at the betting of the 4 teams in Croker on Sunday...

Laois 14 - 1
Kildare 25 - 1
Offaly 80 - 1
Westmeath 80 - 1

One could argue that perhaps Offaly were the best team on display on Sunday yet our odds are over treble that of Kildares(we beat them twice last year) and nearly 6 times that of Laois !!!

I know that if we're to win the All Ireland we'll have to play 2 (I think ) more games than the likes of Laois or Kildare (if they were to go ahead and win Leinster)

Of the teams ranked higher than us in the betting there are at least 9 I'd like a crack at before the summers out....


Mayo
Laois
Cork
Donegal
Kildare
Meath
Wexford
Limerick
Westmeath

The others I think we'd struggle against......

[the bare biffo]

Based on Offaly's performances in the qualifiers to date, 80-1 may be a little short.

I wonder what odds would you get on Offaly reaching the quarterfinal stage ?

[Lone Shark]

Big difference is that Laois and Kildare have the luxury of losing a game - we now have to win seven straight. Even if we were even money all the way that's 127/1. And while we might be favourite early on, one suspects we won't be evens or shorter for too many games from now on.

Regarding Leix' price, I'd suspect that their status as "golden team" from two years ago is still around. To be honest that's way underpriced - 33/1 is a fairer reflection. However they do draw their share of loyalty money.

[Ron]

Thought I was going to have a great night out on Sunday, €40 on an Offaly win at 15/8 (of course it would have been just a bonus had we won).
Anyway the quarterfinal bet sounds interesting, how many matches would you need to come through the qualifers to get there?
It would be great to see them coming out in the qualifers fighting, something we haven't really seen yet.

[Hyper]

4/1 with Boyles to reach QF

[Lone Shark]

Speaking as a bookie, that's too short. If we are where we think we are, I rate us as about 75% to reach round 2, given that we make that, 66% in round 2, and at best 50% in the next 2 rounds.

I wouldn't back us at anything smaller than 7/1.

[the bare biffo]

I think I'd agree with that.

[Hyper]

LS, will you lay me 7/1?

[Lone Shark]

The bookie in me is screaming yes, but I just couldn't bear to back against Offaly. I'm clinically unable to do it. I mean Kerry were 4/5 at home to us in the league this year (Kerry!!! ) and I couldn't back it.

Let me put it to you another way. Back them round by round and my guess is it'll multiply out to a better price. You'll only miss out if we get a soft draw the whole way through, but a soft draw in rounds 3 and 4 is very unlikely.