Lies, Damn Lies, and Reasons for Being Bottom of the League

[Lone Shark]

“The difference between American sports and European sports is simple: Americans go to a game and sing along with the announcers and cheerleaders, they have a beer, maybe a hot dog, or nachos, and generally eat drink and be merry. European sports fans couldn’t eat because their stomachs are tight with tension” - Anon

That quote completely sums up the lack of appeal that most American Sports hold for Lone Shark. For all the Vince Lombardi quotes about winning and success that abound, the truth is that winning doesn’t matter all that much to the US sports fan – it’s all about the day out. Major League Baseball in particular epitomises this, playing thousands of regular season games each year to eliminate a few teams before the real business starts. It was once described as an elaborate means of generating statistics – a summation that suitably captures the pointlessness of the whole thing. It’s probably a good thing that GAA followers generally look beyond the numbers, to the human factor; who played well and tracked back among the forwards, but maybe didn’t register on the scoresheet; which defender might have conceded a few scores to his opposite number but contributed going forward; the goalie who may have let in three goals but really couldn’t have done anything about them, and at least set things up well with good kickouts. This is all good and commendable, but that doesn’t mean that we should throw out the baby with the bathwater, to turn an old phrase. Because if Offaly are to revive their league campaign and find the couple of wins they’ll need to avoid the drop, some glaring truths will have to be stared in the face. It’s no good looking at lads and saying they’re playing well, or making allowances for injuries or inexperience, all of which Kevin Kilmurray is doing in the wake of Sunday’s defeat. Tthe NFL is a hard fought competition now, and must be afforded the respect it deserves, and if you spend spring in Division 2, you start the summer at least a few steps behind 16 of the teams you’re competing against for honours.

For the second week in a row, we kicked substantially more wides than points. This is unforgivable in modern gaelic football, where successful teams usually hit 60% points to 40% wides – a mark that seems way beyond this current Offaly team. The time honoured response to this is to give out either about the player or the management, but these are players that are performing for their clubs and underage teams down the years – they’re not suddenly bad players when they pull on Offaly shirts. The truth is that in Omagh last week and Tullamore this, some very injudicious shot selection has led to good possession being kicked away and impetus being lost at crucial times. To address the issue of kicking away wide ball after wide ball is not something easily addressed however. Lone Shark’s best guess will follow, as part of an overall solution.

Yet for all our wides, we’re still raising flags. Four goals and forty seven points in four games is not the stuff of legend, but it’s very respectable. In a division containing seven other sides that could all make legitimate claims to be in the top ten teams in the country, it’s third best, with the seemingly unstoppable Tyrone only having outscored us by one point so far. So one’s powers of deduction, when trying to decipher why Tyrone have a healthy eight points as opposed to our altogether more sickly two, you have to look at the defence – and here’s where the number crunchers can go to town! Four goals and fifty seven points conceded, or 17.25 points per game – a full two points per game higher than the next worst, and a full seven points per game worse than Tyrone, who are setting the standard at the moment. This is not a new phenomenon – our last two championship games last summer saw us concede 1-16 and 2-14 respectively – this is raising the bar too high for any forward line, and certainly will find us out during the summer.

The third statistic is a managerial one, and is equally damning – we are now four games into the league, and not once has our management team yet made a personnel switch early enough to make a difference. Yesterday’s game saw a change at corner back, Daly for Nigel Grennan, after 55 minutes when Offaly were trailing by four. I repeat, four points down with fifteen minutes remaining on the clock, and we swapped corner backs. Sadly no further changes were made. Not once in four games has any starting player been so much as moved out of his original position by the start of the second half in any game unless forced to do so by yellow card or injury. If this were seen as a sign of trust by the players it would be commendable, but the truth is that it serves only to leave players who are struggling to come to grips with a game flounder in front of supporters and peers alike, when clearly it’s just not going to be their day. To watch our midfield against Westmeath, or our half back line in Omagh and Tralee suffer as they did with no sign of assistance or attempt at direction from the sideline left Lone Shark cold, as similar inactivity on a championship Sunday will be fatal. Collectively so far we’ve been nine points down at half time in four games. For not a single switch, even positional, to be made in all that time would not encourage faith in our sideline team’s ability to read a game.

The current system employed by Kilmurray and his team is straightforward, and not revolutionary – it is modelled on Meath of the late nineties, with two men inside, and Colm Quinn attempting to play the Trevor Giles style playmaker role. However our system is failing because of our instinct for running at backlines. If Coughlan/McNamee/Reynolds miss one high ball in, then often patience is lost and players start running in looking to support. I believe this to be the root of both of the above problems. When our half forwards an midfielders forego the early ball in an attempt to attack, the end result is a compression in on the opposition goal, which usually results in a hurried shot from 35 metres or more, taken by someone who is not one of the two players (Coughlan and Reynolds yesterday, usually Coughlan and McNamee) we would like to see having our shots. Needless to say these are not high percentage shots, and largely contribute to our large number of wides. However it punishes us doubly, as it means that should play break down, we concede the ball with several men committed forward. Sides with fast attacking wing backs, such as Mullins and Gardiner on Sunday can spill forward and move the ball up to and past midfield at pace with a few short passes and good running of the shoulder of their team mate. This gives better quality possession to the opposition, and is a major factor in our high concession rates.

To persevere with this system of insisting on the half forwards and midfielders delivering early and letting the inside men do what they do best requires a lot of patience and faith however. There will be long stretches without scores – compensated by how we shouldn’t be leaking at the same rate. It places huge emphasis on two players, who in our case are both U-21s. The talent is unquestionable, but in Graham Geraghty and Ollie Murphy Seán Boylan was working with two outstanding exponents of the game who could be relied upon to score freely off scraps of possession. The temptation to charge in and assist our younger players if three or four balls in succession get cleared will be strong, and will need to be overcome by the more senior players wearing numbers between 8 and 13.

History invariably repeats itself. Roughly 2000 years ago a soothsayer warned the then leader of the Civilised world to beware the Ides of March. Well we have seen the Wides of March, and we must heed or else meet our demise.

[Bogman]

That is an attractive analysis, Lone Shark, and sums up our difficulties.

A few comments at the risk of over-analysis. First I am not sure if blind adherence to the Meath System of the Long Ball to Two Gifted Forwards is going to work in the modern game. At least we have moved on to it from the Brainless Hail Mary to Three Full Forwards that we generally pursue and it is much more enjoyable to watch than the short handpassing game but there are problems with it. There has to be a Plan B.

1. Teams like Tyrone have a few extra players marking space in front of their full backs. I have never seen anything as painful to watch as the Offaly players in Omagh, programmed to hit a diagonal ball to the opposite corner or a straight ball down the line hopping into the corner forward's chest, looking around in blind panic and then knocking it straight down the throats of the spare men.

2. The Long Ball doesn't work as well against the wind as it does when there is a following breeze to carry it over a back gambling to come out in front.

3. It doesn't work well when Offaly are chasing the game because the opposition just funnel back a la Tyrone and catch us on the break.

4. It needs forwards who can win their own ball. McNamee, Coughlan and Deehan (where is he?, we need him!) are better than we have had for a long time but all of them can be beaten to two or three in succession.

I don't know what the answer is! It does help if there are midfielders or half forwards who can kick points from distance to keep the defence honest or else can drive in for scores for the sake of variation.

In fairness, despite these problems, our full forwards are Offaly's best line and isolating two of them on markers is progress. Another variation is to leave Niall McNamee or James Coughlan in lonely isolation close to the goals. Then you could see the Lone Forward wreak havoc like Niall Mac did for Rhode in Offaly or JC for Doon or Stephen O'Neill for Tyrone in Omagh. But what to do when the opposition bring a man back to stand in front of the Lone Forward like Portlaoise did against Rhode? Maybe we should do the same and aim to win a low scoring game. At least it might have stopped Mattie Forde!!!

[Percy Sledgehammer]

The break won't happen if we just sit back and let the forwards do the work. Maybe throw in Grennan or someone up there, and just have him come back up the field for kickouts. It's a soccer technique, and would need a lot of honing, but it could work.

[Bord na Mona man]

Updated tables. No surprise that (excluding ourselves) the top 3 scorers have all played us.

Scored:

1. Mayo 5-51 (66)
2. Offaly 4-48 (60)
2. Tyrone 3-51 (60)
4. Kerry 5-43 (58)
5. Dublin 4-44 (56)
6. Cork 3-42 (51)
7. Donegal 3-42 (51)
8. Wastemeath 2-44 (50)


Conceded:

1. Offaly 4-57 (69)
2. Kerry 4-49 (61)
2. Mayo 5-46 (61)
4. Dublin 4-47 (59)
5. Donegal 5-42 (57)
6. Wastemeath 5-39 (54)
7. Cork 2-43 (49)
8. Tyrone 0-42 (42)

Kilmurray must be the Kevin Keegan of gaelic football. Cavalier attacking and a disregard for defending.
Seriously though, we need to stop conceding huge tallies. Maybe we're having to commit too many players into attack to get scores?
Should we really persist with wing backs like Mooney and Slattery who are better attackers than defenders.
The isolated forwards strategy loses its value if they are still very dependent on support coming from deep.
Murphy and Geraghty could combine and get the scores amongst themselves without having several of their team-mates having to push forward to support them.

[the bare biffo]

Interesting Stats, but is it not valid to take account of the fact that Offaly have played Kerry, Mayo and Tyrone - the AI Champs, finalists, and the best team in the country at the minute. I think Dublin are the only others to have played all three and they are not all that healthy looking either.

In reality, when the fixtures were announced I expected to beat W.meath, lose the next three and then start scrapping with Cork, Dublin and Donegal to avoid the drop. Sundays game is the most critical. Another defeat and it's over, win or maybe a draw depending on other results is essential. The hiccup is that Cork appear to be a little better that expected, but if the westies could hold them to a draw there should be hope.
I say hold off judgement till Sunday.

[Bord na Mona man]

In reality, when the fixtures were announced I expected to beat W.meath, lose the next three and then start scrapping with Cork, Dublin and Donegal to avoid the drop. Sundays game is the most critical.

Yeah, it's too early to be pessimistic. The league is a strange competition. Teams who are in contention for a knockout place on the last day, often lose and get relegated. Kerry have one less defeat than us are in 3rd place.
Wastemeath won their only match in the very last round last year and managed to stay up.